Did We Learn Nothing From Jeff Goldblum’s Speech in Jurassic Park?
Understanding the war through summer blockbusters
The war in Iran has me thinking a lot about Jeff Goldblum’s speech in the 1993 arthouse film Jurassic Park. And I don’t mean Goldblum’s “your scientists didn’t stop to think if they should speech”, or his “we’ll give the alien a cold” speech, which was actually from Independence Day. I’m talking about the speech in which Goldblum explains chaos theory while not-so-subtly informing Sam Neill’s character that he could totally bang his wife if he wanted to. This scene:
IMHO, the only way this war could end well is if the Iranian regime is replaced by something better. If it ends with a weapons deal, it will not have been worth it. The Iranian government is so brutal to its people and such a menace to the region that if they’re replaced by a D-plus-or-better government, that’s probably a win for humanity. They really are so bad that their downfall could make all the death, chaos, and Pete Hegseth moments that kind of make you hope that the next bomb will fall directly on you worth it.
But will that happen? As famed mathematician, scientist, and wizard Jeff Goldblum tells us: Who knows? There are too many variables to be able to predict. Iranians have risked their lives in large numbers to change their government, so it’s definitely plausible that if we keep killing members of the Iranian leadership — if we just keep going down the line until the Junior Summer Intern is functionally in charge — that could be decisive. Or, ya know…not. We can’t say. The opposition lacks a leader, and many of their most committed people are dead or in jail. Chaos could ensue, which happened in many countries after the Arab Spring. Or the mullahs could fall only for the military to seize the reins, which might be a net negative, because one thing you often hear about the mullahs is that they are fucking morons. And the only thing worse than a brutal, zealous, incompetent regime might be a brutal, zealous, competent one.
Also relevant to the situation is a similar concept best expressed by the lawyer in The Man Who Wasn’t There, as played by Adrian Monk.
Seizing power is one thing — staying in power is another. History is full of glorious revolutions that didn’t stick; that’s why Ben Franklin famously responded to a questions about what type of government the constitutional delegates had made by saying: “A republic, if you can keep it. Now which way to the nearest brothel? No, that’s too far — I’ll just order in.” The Arab Spring saw a thousand democratic flowers bloom only for all of them to be cut down by the authoritarian blade. And an Iranian government brought to power by the war will have one gigantic strike against it: It will be seen as an American and Israeli puppet.
A new Iranian government that seized power before the war would have been seen as an authentic expression of the popular will. But a new government now will be widely viewed as a tool of America and Israel. We lack good polling data about how popular America and Israel are in Iran — you’re asleep at the wheel, Steve Kornacki! — but I don’t think it’s going out on a limb to call us “not incredibly popular”. And the war will probably not make us more popular. Any government we help bring to power will be seen by many as a foreign puppet, which is exactly what happened in Iraq. And actually: It’s also exactly what happened in Iran when we installed the Shah in 1953. Some people are even considering running that exact same play again with the Shah’s son, which seems like the most ill-conceived ‘50s reboot short of Amos & Andy.
The dad from The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel said it well: “You can’t know what would have happened if you hadn’t stuck in your goddamned schnozz.” Amen. Any postwar government will now have a serious legitimacy problem. A Les Mis-style people’s uprising is now off the table; an uprising enabled by two countries who are less popular in the region than mosquitos and crab lice is all that’s left. And I’m still rooting for the Mosquitos And Crab Lice Revolution — it beats the alternative. But I worry that the administration is making decisions using sub-summer-popcorn-movie-level calculus.