Agreed. Jeff didn’t just do this to alley-oop himself; I appreciate that it gives us readers a really clear data set to point to when talking to lefties out in the world.
But what counts as leftist or centrist shifts over time as the Overton window moves. That appears to be happening with health care where Americans are more open to universal coverage than they were when Obamacare was passed. Ditto for taxing billionaires and support for Israel, issues where the median Dem has moved left. You also need to distinguish between leftist positions on so-called cultural issues (trans rights) and economics. The latter are much more popular.
There might be an unarticulated presumption here that goes something like, “sure, DSA candidates don’t do better electorally, but when they run it gets ideas out there, and in the long run, this is a net positive”.
if that is the case, then it would be super helpful to set those as the terms of the debate from the jump. Because that is very much not the argument that I hear.
Second, even if that was true, shouldn’t we trying to change peoples’ minds by talking to them and trying to change their minds, and try to win elections during the elections? There must be some better (and less expensive!) way to communicate your ideas for change without having to run for office.
I'm comfortable with a politician taking a popularity hit for something they believe in. While I agree there might be more cost effective ways, I'm not sure I have an issue with people who happen to be in a position or political influence trying to use it. It's one thing to start a niche party and campaign specifically to change the public mind on something but if you are already someone interested in office you are allowed to package in what you believe.
That said, I'm a bit baffled that politicians never embrace the inverse: "I don't think this is right but clearly you do and I work for you, so, we're routing around the Dobby memorial." Just say it, why not. I think that would free up politicians and voters to pick their battles more. Then people could say "I know Y isn't popular, so I won't push it even though I'm taking up podium time to say this and hopefully change your mind." In essence, it would let people make the argument you say you don't hear much.
Which of the Bernie endorsed candidates was moderate/centrist on cultural issues? And, no, not talking about them, doesn't count as being moderate. The answer is right there if you're willing to not ignore it.
Lots of people in the Dem party are moderate on social/cultural issues and left on economics. It’s called populism. Why are you asking mr about Bernie bros?
I bring up the Bernie endorsement because that was Maurer's measure for being left-aligned. You're right about rank-and-file voters being all over the map. That said, based on the track record inherited from Biden, unless a Democratic candidate explicitly says they favor sex as the basis for sports leagues (a la Josh Turek), voters understandably assume they aren't moderate.
Fair point, but I think there’s lots of evidence that Dems are backing away from the trans sports arguments. And my broader point is that what is left and right changes (and the center with it), and that you need to distinguish between left and right in what issues. Trump in ‘15-16 ran to the left of the median R on economics, but was a hard line immigration hawk.
Let's start taking odds on how much and in what manner the Democrats will misunderstand their mandate and overreach and act like nutjobs, and the eventual end of the Trump administration.
4-1 Trump is impeached
10-1 Trump is convicted
3-5 if convicted he attempts to pardon himself
12-1 Trump resigns
22-1 Trump gets a sex change and changes his name and runs for a third term
I guess I might argue against the idea that the mainstream democratic party was also throwing their full institutional weight behind the leftist Senate candidates here. In Michigan, El-Sayed's moderate primary opponent, Haley Stevens, later endorsed his Republican opponent in the general. As someone who lives in Michigan, the political atmosphere (Ads, flyers, etc.) felt like El-Sayed had as much opposition coming from him from the center-left as he did from the right.
Osborne ran ahead of the nebraska governor's race. Is this an error or do I not understand the figure? Also Turek, a moderate, performs worse on this metric than El Sayed, a progressive. Are we just going to ignore that?
While I admire your valiant effort to keep the Democrats from shitting the bed (again), we all know what happens next. The Democrats will focus on the most unpopular parts of their agenda (trans nonsense, open borders, etc), press for more war and deficit spending, ignore infrastructure, or worse, put infrastructure spending into obvious pork barrel corrupt bullshit (like BBB and the Green New Deal) and generally do their best to piss away their mandate and lose in two years. We've all seen this movie before. I'd be funny if it wasn't so depressing.
Good lord, you people throwing the word leftist around wouldn't know a real leftist if they came up and smacked you with a copy of Das Kapital. Words matter, and watching this moron not even able to define a leftist is absolutely ridiculous. Pure drivel.
You've nicely demonstrated that Bernie Sanders is the Typhoid Mary of Democratic politics. Still, I wonder about Florida (doesn't everybody?). As your one of your charts shows, she was barely outperformed by David Jolly, an ex-Republican and no one's idea of a DSA member. A fluke? Exception testing the rule? Florida being Florida?
Of course, our leftist friends blame Nixon's loss on a lack of funding. In the tender words of Sam Seder:
Jolly and Nixon came so close with nearly no resources. Abject failure of Democratic leadership in deploying rsources. #youhadonejob
Love it! Great methodology, clear predictions, and ice-cold results. Putting a pin in this.
Agreed. Jeff didn’t just do this to alley-oop himself; I appreciate that it gives us readers a really clear data set to point to when talking to lefties out in the world.
But what counts as leftist or centrist shifts over time as the Overton window moves. That appears to be happening with health care where Americans are more open to universal coverage than they were when Obamacare was passed. Ditto for taxing billionaires and support for Israel, issues where the median Dem has moved left. You also need to distinguish between leftist positions on so-called cultural issues (trans rights) and economics. The latter are much more popular.
Nobody actually wants leftist economic policy. Avowed Socialists don't even want to give up the luxury and comfort capitalism has brought us.
There might be an unarticulated presumption here that goes something like, “sure, DSA candidates don’t do better electorally, but when they run it gets ideas out there, and in the long run, this is a net positive”.
if that is the case, then it would be super helpful to set those as the terms of the debate from the jump. Because that is very much not the argument that I hear.
Second, even if that was true, shouldn’t we trying to change peoples’ minds by talking to them and trying to change their minds, and try to win elections during the elections? There must be some better (and less expensive!) way to communicate your ideas for change without having to run for office.
I'm comfortable with a politician taking a popularity hit for something they believe in. While I agree there might be more cost effective ways, I'm not sure I have an issue with people who happen to be in a position or political influence trying to use it. It's one thing to start a niche party and campaign specifically to change the public mind on something but if you are already someone interested in office you are allowed to package in what you believe.
That said, I'm a bit baffled that politicians never embrace the inverse: "I don't think this is right but clearly you do and I work for you, so, we're routing around the Dobby memorial." Just say it, why not. I think that would free up politicians and voters to pick their battles more. Then people could say "I know Y isn't popular, so I won't push it even though I'm taking up podium time to say this and hopefully change your mind." In essence, it would let people make the argument you say you don't hear much.
Which of the Bernie endorsed candidates was moderate/centrist on cultural issues? And, no, not talking about them, doesn't count as being moderate. The answer is right there if you're willing to not ignore it.
Lots of people in the Dem party are moderate on social/cultural issues and left on economics. It’s called populism. Why are you asking mr about Bernie bros?
I bring up the Bernie endorsement because that was Maurer's measure for being left-aligned. You're right about rank-and-file voters being all over the map. That said, based on the track record inherited from Biden, unless a Democratic candidate explicitly says they favor sex as the basis for sports leagues (a la Josh Turek), voters understandably assume they aren't moderate.
Fair point, but I think there’s lots of evidence that Dems are backing away from the trans sports arguments. And my broader point is that what is left and right changes (and the center with it), and that you need to distinguish between left and right in what issues. Trump in ‘15-16 ran to the left of the median R on economics, but was a hard line immigration hawk.
>now, Democrats will decide if they’re going to listen.
I fully expect them not to, and we'll be having a conversation in two years about another swing rightward.
Usage quibble: a hoard is a bunch of old newspapers or whatever. A bunch of people is a horde.
Let's start taking odds on how much and in what manner the Democrats will misunderstand their mandate and overreach and act like nutjobs, and the eventual end of the Trump administration.
4-1 Trump is impeached
10-1 Trump is convicted
3-5 if convicted he attempts to pardon himself
12-1 Trump resigns
22-1 Trump gets a sex change and changes his name and runs for a third term
Kyle Dunnigan predicted Trans-Trump years ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-6z9DXXhwo
I guess I might argue against the idea that the mainstream democratic party was also throwing their full institutional weight behind the leftist Senate candidates here. In Michigan, El-Sayed's moderate primary opponent, Haley Stevens, later endorsed his Republican opponent in the general. As someone who lives in Michigan, the political atmosphere (Ads, flyers, etc.) felt like El-Sayed had as much opposition coming from him from the center-left as he did from the right.
Osborne ran ahead of the nebraska governor's race. Is this an error or do I not understand the figure? Also Turek, a moderate, performs worse on this metric than El Sayed, a progressive. Are we just going to ignore that?
While I admire your valiant effort to keep the Democrats from shitting the bed (again), we all know what happens next. The Democrats will focus on the most unpopular parts of their agenda (trans nonsense, open borders, etc), press for more war and deficit spending, ignore infrastructure, or worse, put infrastructure spending into obvious pork barrel corrupt bullshit (like BBB and the Green New Deal) and generally do their best to piss away their mandate and lose in two years. We've all seen this movie before. I'd be funny if it wasn't so depressing.
Good lord, you people throwing the word leftist around wouldn't know a real leftist if they came up and smacked you with a copy of Das Kapital. Words matter, and watching this moron not even able to define a leftist is absolutely ridiculous. Pure drivel.
Why don't you define it, then, and explain how Jeff's categorisation is deficient?
You've nicely demonstrated that Bernie Sanders is the Typhoid Mary of Democratic politics. Still, I wonder about Florida (doesn't everybody?). As your one of your charts shows, she was barely outperformed by David Jolly, an ex-Republican and no one's idea of a DSA member. A fluke? Exception testing the rule? Florida being Florida?
Of course, our leftist friends blame Nixon's loss on a lack of funding. In the tender words of Sam Seder:
Jolly and Nixon came so close with nearly no resources. Abject failure of Democratic leadership in deploying rsources. #youhadonejob
https://x.com/SamSeder/status/2117808284526952827