I have been watching people not take stuff seriously, so I dressed up as a clown to prove to everyone how easy it is for me to dress up as a clown. I never intended to amuse anyone, I only wanted to start a national conversation about how I beclowned myself, and by doing so, I exposed how nobody took me seriously.
All seriousness aside, I'd believe a polling firm was doing a social experiment on the accuracy and reliability of polls if that polling firm was named, shit I don't know, Real Clear Politics, Quinnipiac, Pew Research, Marist, you know, one of the polling companies that people had actually heard of before, and that actually has an interest in doing a self-audit, and making those results public, so that the public believes in their credibility.
Much as I hate to defend these guys, and that statement is extremely suspicious, IIRC even a consistent pro-R/D bias of two percentage points is within the standard margin of error. It's one of the reasons why Real Clear Politics averages out a lot of polls when calling races.
Well, yes . . . but I am trying to remember when any financial or governmental or political figure or financial/government/political adjacent figure's crime and/or screwup has ever been actually prosecuted for malfeasance or even just held up in public contempt since at least 2008. And I am coming up dry. I am not clear why there is no accountability, unless it's something to do with honor among thieves: "I wonder what a jury in a criminal trial for fraud might say."
I'm confused (which is no surprise) on the meaning. Did Wegdewood not contact people? Did they ask leading questions? And how does one "prove" to anyone that the polling was done? I think I will let Nate Silver sort this out.....
I wouldn't it have been as effective and less fishy to just deliberately rig a highly biased sample? You can still be corrupt without the fraud and blame incompetence if you get caught.
I have been watching people not take stuff seriously, so I dressed up as a clown to prove to everyone how easy it is for me to dress up as a clown. I never intended to amuse anyone, I only wanted to start a national conversation about how I beclowned myself, and by doing so, I exposed how nobody took me seriously.
All seriousness aside, I'd believe a polling firm was doing a social experiment on the accuracy and reliability of polls if that polling firm was named, shit I don't know, Real Clear Politics, Quinnipiac, Pew Research, Marist, you know, one of the polling companies that people had actually heard of before, and that actually has an interest in doing a self-audit, and making those results public, so that the public believes in their credibility.
Much as I hate to defend these guys, and that statement is extremely suspicious, IIRC even a consistent pro-R/D bias of two percentage points is within the standard margin of error. It's one of the reasons why Real Clear Politics averages out a lot of polls when calling races.
"I wonder what a jury in a criminal trial for fraud might say."
You know, that's a rather interesting question, and it would be great if we end up getting a confirmed answer to it.
Well, yes . . . but I am trying to remember when any financial or governmental or political figure or financial/government/political adjacent figure's crime and/or screwup has ever been actually prosecuted for malfeasance or even just held up in public contempt since at least 2008. And I am coming up dry. I am not clear why there is no accountability, unless it's something to do with honor among thieves: "I wonder what a jury in a criminal trial for fraud might say."
I'm confused (which is no surprise) on the meaning. Did Wegdewood not contact people? Did they ask leading questions? And how does one "prove" to anyone that the polling was done? I think I will let Nate Silver sort this out.....
They did not contact anyone — they just made up numbers.
I wouldn't it have been as effective and less fishy to just deliberately rig a highly biased sample? You can still be corrupt without the fraud and blame incompetence if you get caught.
"Hi, we're from the polling firm of Fromar-Ashoal. Do you have a few minutes."
Wow. Thanks!