If we assume (very oversimplifying assumption) that the pool of voters is the same each election, then shifts are caused by voters changing party preference. To go from losing 20-80 to losing 30-70, you need to get 1 out of 8 voters (12.5%) to move to your column. To go from losing 40-60 to winning 60-40, you need to get 1 out of 6 voters (16.6%) to move to your column. To go from winning 70-30 to winning 80-20, you need to get 1 out of 3 voters (33.3%) to move to your column.
Each additional increment is harder because you need to move an increasing fraction of voters to your columns. In a state that's already very blue, there aren't that many red voters left to convert, you need to convert a huge proportion of them to make a difference.
You could do an analysis where, for each race, you calculate what proportion of the red share converted to the blue team between last cycle and this cycle (or any similar proxy).
(By the way, I wholeheartedly agree with Jeff's conclusion, this is to illustrate the dynamic at play.)
Assembling cogent, data-based arguments to refute leftist delusions is one of the primary indicators of insanity (as if we needed another indicator in your case).
The Substack app is doing weird things this morning…..
If we assume (very oversimplifying assumption) that the pool of voters is the same each election, then shifts are caused by voters changing party preference. To go from losing 20-80 to losing 30-70, you need to get 1 out of 8 voters (12.5%) to move to your column. To go from losing 40-60 to winning 60-40, you need to get 1 out of 6 voters (16.6%) to move to your column. To go from winning 70-30 to winning 80-20, you need to get 1 out of 3 voters (33.3%) to move to your column.
Each additional increment is harder because you need to move an increasing fraction of voters to your columns. In a state that's already very blue, there aren't that many red voters left to convert, you need to convert a huge proportion of them to make a difference.
You could do an analysis where, for each race, you calculate what proportion of the red share converted to the blue team between last cycle and this cycle (or any similar proxy).
(By the way, I wholeheartedly agree with Jeff's conclusion, this is to illustrate the dynamic at play.)
Assembling cogent, data-based arguments to refute leftist delusions is one of the primary indicators of insanity (as if we needed another indicator in your case).
This is your best work yet, Jeff!
The Substack app is doing weird things this morning…..
I can imagine you being burned in effigy on Bluesky.
Wait, is there still a Bluesky?
The Substack app is doing weird things this morning…..
I can imagine you being burned in effigy on Bluesky.
Wait, is there still a Bluesky?
I can imagine you being burned in effigy on Bluesky.
Wait, is there still a Bluesky?
I can imagine you being burned in effigy on Bluesky.
Wait, is there still a Bluesky?