Does Gavin Newsom's '80s Pro Wrestling-Style Feud with Trump Make Him a Frontrunner?
It depends if you mean "frontrunner for the nomination" or "frontrunner for the presidency"
So it’s come to this: The president and the governor of our largest state are trading childish burns in an exchange that makes Hulk Hogan (RIP) and Macho Man Randy Savage (probably RIP1) look like George Plimpton and Gore Vidal. Gavin Newsom’s press office has started tweeting in the all-caps style of our barely-literate president, and he’s also made a few statements using sailor mouth that this blog heartily endorses. It’s trashy, humiliating, makes one wonder if America might have made a mistake by throwing off the yoke of the Hanoverian kings, and I’ll admit: I’m really digging it.
Gavin Newsom isn’t the first Democrat to take on Trump; he’s just the first to be good at it. Other Democrats brought George McFly energy to their Trump feuds; Newsom is bringing wit, the f-word, and — prepare to be shocked — some testosterone. He seems to understand that he and Trump are primates battling for dominance, and he will only become leader if he can fling more and better poo than his opponent. Remarkably, Trump has already stopped tweeting in all caps, which seems like as clear of a sign of submission as if he had offered to mow Newsom’s lawn while dressed like Little Orphan Annie.
Democrats love this. We can’t do anything right now — we currently hold about as much power as the manager of a medium-traffic Starbucks — so the consolation prize is watching our guy record better diss tracks than the other guy. And Polymarket believes that Newsom has become the favorite to capture the Democratic nomination in 2028:
There he is: Seven points ahead of Dear Lord Please Tell Me We’re Not That Dumb and 12 points ahead of Good Candidate Who Can’t Win Because He’s Gay2. Of course, these markets should be taken with a grain of salt — look who’s given a non-zero chance of winning the nomination:
And here’s another one that obviously won’t happen:
And the most ridiculous one of all:
But Newsom has raised his profile by trolling Trump effectively. Even I — who would not have previously described myself as a Newsom fan — have enjoyed his work. He’s responding to Democrats’ constant admonishments to “fight”, and he’s doing it with some verve. He’s shown that he can win a news cycle, and that he can speak that there English real good. Is that enough to win the nomination?
Maybe. But I worry that liberals and progressives might be falling in love with Newsom for the wrong reasons. Because let’s acknowledge: We really like what he’s doing right now, but most undecided voters won’t care. We are pushed to the brink of insanity by Trump, we want someone to give voice to the frustration we feel, but most undecided voters will google “What’s an election?” on the Monday before we vote and then cast a ballot based 90 percent on the price of gas. Words do not exist to describe how little they will care about how Newsom handled a partisan gerrymandering fight more than three years prior.
Newsom will need to develop qualities other than “embodies the liberal/progressive id”. I’m not saying that he can’t — I’m just saying that being a Blue Team Hero is not a sufficient condition to gain broad support. Remember all the Elizabeth Warren rah-rah “she persisted” pep squad bullshit during Trump’s first term? That translated into zero primary contest wins and little support from the general public. And Newsom will face numerous challenges, especially: 1) He’s governor of a state that many people consider to be the Platonic ideal of shitty progressive governance, 2) He looks like the guy in an ‘80s movie who forecloses on an orphanage, and 3) People like me have not forgotten that this photo exists:
A caveat about that photo, though: The woman, of course, is Kimberly Guilfoyle, who was married to Newsom and is now married to Donald Trump, Jr. So, we have to talk about dominance again; normally, “stealing” a woman from a first guy shows dominance.3 But I think what we have here is something of an “Aaron Rodgers with the Packers” vs. “Aaron Rodgers with the Jets” situation, which gives the dominance edge back to Newsom.
In 2020, Democrats focused too much on winning the primary and not enough on winning the general election. They took positions that hurt the Democratic brand and came back to haunt Harris in 2024. Newsom’s feud with Trump is different because it at least won’t hurt — you gotta bash the other guy at some point, you might as well start now. But we should recognize that Newsom is improving his standing with Democrats, not with the general public. There is no path to broad popularity that involves the word “gerrymandering”. We now know that Newsom can connect with Democrats, but whether he can connect with anyone else remains to be seen.
What Does "Democrats Should Fight!" Mean?
Democrats have their biodegradable, ethically sourced underwear in a twist. Discontent is so high that Chuck Schumer had to postpone his book tour out of fear that hordes of turtleneck-wearing adjunct professors might surround him and “tsk” him to death. The sentiment — usually expressed in all caps — that DEMOCRATS NEED TO FIGHT is as common on social media right now as the (correct) sentiment that Duke basketball is the source of all evil in the world. Democrats are so angry that the stridence of the stickers that we put on our Macbooks could increase by as much as 80 percent.
Anecdotally, Yes: Something's Wrong With California
This week, New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof wrote a column about progressive mis-governance of West Coast states. The column caused a stir, as you might expect: This was, after all, a callout from Nicholas Kristof, one of the leading voices of bleeding heart progressivism in the Tenderheart The Care Bear vein. To have Nicholas Kristof call your movement a bunch of dreamers and pussies (not a direct quote) is a bit like having Hunter Biden tell you that you need to sober up and get your shit together.
I googled it and…yeah, The Macho Man is dead. Pro wrestlers have the lifespan of great danes.
I’ll unpack this in a future column: I really like Buttigeig, but I think he can’t win the nomination because of his sexual orientation. Bad stuff!
I don’t endorse any of this thinking — I’m just saying that this is the thought process some people have.
Newsom is trying to imitate Trump's style but of course it's completely fake. He will excite the contingent of Democratic voters who can't tell the difference between affected symbolic behavior and authenticity, but the schticky, manipulative fakeness of it will repel everyone else.
And if Newsom somehow becomes the candidate the election will come down to a referendum on the condition of LA and San Francisco: Do you want your whole country to look like that?
“I worry that liberals and progressives might be falling in love with Newsom for the wrong reasons.”
Newsom-mania reminds me of the adulation bestowed on another Californian, now a guest of the Federal Government, Michael Avenatti. In 2018, Stormy Daniels’s lawyer was worshipped as a Democratic god (he even claimed he was the Democrats’ best shot for the Presidency in 2020, and a lot of Democrats believed), only to be revealed as a criminal a few years later. While I don’t think legal jeopardy is in Gavin Newsom’s future, I do not believe his current celebrity will translate into the nomination in 2028. The Newsom - Ocasio Cortez - Buttigieg threesome (sorry) you cite is more likely a function of name recognition than anything else.