My take for what it's worth. This past weekend the photograph of US troops unfurling the red carpet for a monstrous and implacably evil child kidnapping/killing war criminal blew my mind - it was the photo of the flag raising on Mount Suribachi in complete reverse. It got me very down. This morning I gazed upon a portrait of a benign Jesus placing his hand on Gavin's shoulder and I burst out laughing. Like the recent South Park episodes, I NEEDED that. Desperately. Like Jeff and many readers, I have my doubts about Newsome's viability as a presidential candidate. But this is political jui-jitsu combat played at a very high level and it just may succeed where all other strategies have thus far failed. BTW, between Putin and Epstein, does anyone else appreciate Trump's almost demonic affinity for the at-scale tormenters of children? Fucking amazing.
It is like democrats don't understand that you keep your enemies close. TDS makes idiots of the infected no matter how allegedly educated the infected may be.
Well, what exactly is TDS? I’m a white middle aged, politically moderate slightly upper middle class suburban dad. And I revile Trump with every fiber of my being because he is objectively, empirically hateful and growing more so with every passing day. TDS just seems more and more like an empty slogan reflexively used by Trump supporters.
Yeah, there’s this annoying idea that if you can accuse someone of “__ Derangement Syndrome”, then you win the argument by default and they couldn’t possibly be justified in their objection to whatever the argument is about.
At this point, it’s basically gaslighting exactly because Trump has exceeded our worst fears about who he is and the damage he’s causing.
. In any event, we don’t talk about pol pot derangement syndrome or Stalin derangement syndrome. Some fuckers earn and deserve the widespread hatred they incite.
It's actually a specific thing, plenty of people despise Trump without suffering TDS, to me the line is when the hatred becomes all consuming and reality distorting, like those people who can't help but bring him up at every opportunity or deny that he's often funny.
Look how much you had to twist my words around there; you can find whoever you like funny or not, but categorically denying that someone is funny is something else.
I just want to add that Mayor Pete isn’t unelectable because he’s gay. He’s unelectable because his last name is Buttigieg, as point (1) of 19 points I could mention.
I do remember you voting for the "at-scale" tormenting of children. Yes, you, dipshit online Democratic voter. You voted for "No More Kids In Cages" before you bothered to learn about why Obama put them in cages in the first place.
Texas Brothels wanted to use ittie bittie brown children, kidnapped across the border, as fucktoys. Whole new "at-scale" business, complete with murder once the perpetually raped children get too old to be "pretty or tight" anymore.
Turns out ICE under Obama decided to put a stop to the "new main street businesses." You may not like ICE, but they did good.
Joe Biden worked under Obama while all this was going down. He deliberately campaigned on "give the South of the Border Children back to their kidnappers."
... or didn't you get the message when Trump started requiring blood tests to release the kids?
Newsom is trying to imitate Trump's style but of course it's completely fake. He will excite the contingent of Democratic voters who can't tell the difference between affected symbolic behavior and authenticity, but the schticky, manipulative fakeness of it will repel everyone else.
And if Newsom somehow becomes the candidate the election will come down to a referendum on the condition of LA and San Francisco: Do you want your whole country to look like that?
If making fun of the guy was an effective strategy against him, Trump's political career would have been dead and buried when Barack Obama thoroughly roasted him at the Correspondent's Dinner in 2011. But how did that work out?
Newsom could maybe try governing California well and see if that's more persuasive to voters.
I haven't been keeping up, but he was ridiculing him and magaworld's head is going to explode.
"Trump's political career would have been dead and buried when Barack Obama thoroughly roasted him at the Correspondent's Dinner in 2011. But how did that work out?"
Lmao that is an easy referendum - it would be sweet if every state had a global entertainment powerhouse like LA and a capital of the tech world like SF.
If Newsom could convince voters that he's responsible for the successes of Hollywood and Silicon Valley but not the heroin needles, crime, and piles of human shit in the streets or the $135 billion stump of a rail line between the cities, he wouldn't need to debase himself by trying to imitate Trump's belligerent busker mannerisms.
But that is not what the average American thinks but of homeless encampments, shoplifting, astronomical rents, budget deficits, sanctuary cities. And liberals, should face up to reality that there is a reason that people are leaving the state.
I am a Dem but there is a reason that no candidate from NY, CA, or MA has won since JFK whereas a good heartland governor like Clinton, Carter or today's Basheer, Cooper, can reach out beyond the liberal bubble and win some swing states and some of the non college demographic
Well yeah that’s a result of marketing and vibes; not actual policies and outcomes
Republicans get a pass for running the most poor and crime+drug addicted states in the entire nation, while Democrats don’t get credit for the most prosperous and successful places to live.
“Oh no don’t turn my town into Hollywood I want to be Appalachia instead”
So, Gavin is going for the vibe battle which how the electorate actually makes decisions
Cid I don't care whether it is marketing, the media, or what not. It is the world we live in and adjust or lose elections. It didn't stop Obama. Who is giving the GOP "a pass". If it is the voters that choose and we might consider what our message is, because I really dont think Trump is popular, it is just that people dislike Democrats more, now the party with the lowest approval probably since the GOP under Hoover. And repeated surveys note that is about border security, crime, and woke.
I will disagree with you on the GOP/Dem they are bad, we are good states. As stated I am a Dem but it is also obvious that people are voting with their feet and by and large leaving blue states for red states. People don't like aggressive panhandlers and unaffordable rents and DAs more concerned about social justice than public safety.
I prefer rural living too, but it's the age-old "city people vs. rural people" divide. City people don't WANT to live in Appalachia, which is why they bid up the cost of housing in cities and their suburbs. To a city person, you can "have" Appalachia, thank you very much. Again , I personally would prefer Appalachia over any city. But supply and demand determine housing costs just like they determine the cost of anything else.
I feel the same way about Gavin. I've never liked him, but can't help but enjoy what he's doing now. But much as I love seeing him mock Trump, I'm also looking nervously around at my fellow Democrats thinking, "We're not going to just nominate him because of stuff like this, right, guys?!"
Well said. I think the hope is that this mockery of Republican politicians and their over-the-top lies and insane shit-postings will catch on with other Democratic officeholders and even the few media supporters still on air, once they've seen how rattled the Republican State Media personalities become by it. Newsome may be leading the charge, but if it gets picked up by others and upsets enough right-wing pod people and twittlers, some of them can also start gaining a bit of national attention and garner some name recognition over the next 3 years.
Seems like you will never read a comment that says, "I like Gavin Newsom." Everyone seems to dislike him. It's obvious why Republicans don't like him. But I am amazed by how many left leaners are unwilling to express anything but disdain as well.
Newsom's numbers are largely about that he seems like he is running. And early frontrunners - think Howard Dean or Hillary in 2008 don't mean a lot. It is refreshing that somebody might take on the bully on his terms as opposed to the Dems refusing to get their hands dirty.
Newsom's pivots on the homeless and transgenders in women's sports, indicates he is trying to pivot middle but California bestows too many albatrosses on anybody, like Trump nailing Harris for having supported taxpayer funded transgender surgery for prisoners. At least Newsom realizes he needs to reinvent himself on woke, where Harris never played defense, but in the end I just dont think that since JFK any Dem from NY, CA, MA went anywhere.
The other one who is willing to take off the gloves on Trump is Buttigieg and like Newsom he is willing to go on FOX and not just hide from the non liberal public.
Um. Who watches FOX? Nobody. It's not even on in rural doctor's offices these days.
You'd have said "Since JFK" any dem from NY, IL, CA, MA, MI, except there was that bloke Barak O. Sure. Moral is: you be from whereever, but you gotta bring it. And you gotta bigger hill to climb if you're from "liberal land" and not from Vermont (still liberal. Loves guns.)
Fox isn't watched by most conservatives these days. I could pull the numbers, but you really want the advertising numbers (which I'm getting from a personal interview with a politico who's also an adman), which'll show you that pretty much only Boomers are watching, and not many of them. Yes, it's still the "largest news channel"... if you don't even put on OANN, which is what rural doctors put on their screens.
Yeah, I did. Because everyone knows which states are "Democratic In Everything Important." Illinois (once a rock solid Republican state) is one of them. So's Michigan. (I could mention Minnesota, but it's actually that weird DSA odd duck, so I'm leaving them out).
My point is that these "everyone knows" are both imprecise and "self-fulfilling prophecies" until they aren't.
Getting elected from one of these "everyone knows" is like trying to tell a Holocaust joke on stage. You're playing on hard mode. Doesn't mean it can't be done, but it does mean you hafta work for it. (Bernie worked like hell to get re-elected on the sympathy vote, lookitup. Democrats need more Bernies if they want to win again.)
No TV show is watched by most of anybody. Does that make all shows irrelevant? I did cite the numbers. The reality is that FOX News by the citation above is the third most widely viewed show and by far the largest watched news show, on cable and broadcast having an audience of the combined CNN and MSNBC. It is the most common news source for the right and undoubtedly some of the center. So a statement that "nobody" watches FOX seems nuts, and it is the type of myopic vision of many Dems that leads to their dwindling popularity. If they refuse to engage with those not in their bubble they will continue to dwindle. What is the relevance of what advertisers care about. Influence is eyeballs.
When you claim "imprecise" I was actually precise - since JFK no Dem candidate from MA, CA, and NY has won is what I said, which includes Harris, H Clinton, Dukakis, and Perry. I didn't include IL which is a strong Dem leaning state or MI which isn't even a Dem state, but a swing state. IL is less Dem leaning than MA, CA, NY, because it has a considerable amount of more rural farming areas. Obama was the strongest candidate the Dems have had since FDR, and probably would have won if he was from NY, but it does hamper the average politician like Harris or H Clinton who has to defend the type of political history that you have to have to succeed in those states. That Harris was on record for supporting transgender surgery for prisoners, regardless of your view, is the type of thing that might fly in CA but not in the heartland which you have to win.
What equivalent of Bernie Sanders has won any national election since FDR. Getting elected in Vermont won't qualify you to win MI and PA and that is why it is the moderate candidates who prevail in those states. he candidate in modern times that was most supported by the left of the party, one George McGovern set the record for the least electoral votes in modern times.
Game of Thrones had about a 30 million viewership by the end... but that's only on HBO. It's not counting later viewership, amazon prime, etc. I can reliably discuss Game of Thrones with people who have never seen Lord of the Rings, it's that big. I'd say, it actually had about 90 million viewers, with an extra 80 million who "watched a little" (probably more than my Mom did, who turned it off after the first beheading -- that's less than five minutes. My mom has never watched the Simpsons).
But you can't snowball with news. A documentary? Sure. Maybe 10 million people have seen Supersize Me. Word of "mouth" that one.
For news? It sure does. We no longer have a collective "this is what's what" whether distributed by the government or not.
We don't even have the Russian "Here are the Official Government Lies" (we banned them off youtube, didja notice? Remember when we were the country of Free Speech? Voice of Democracy was popular because we were more truthy than the Soviets. We didn't need to ban their news, because everyone (including ALL russians) knew it was bunk. Apparently there are lies (or possibly slim truths) the Russians can put on their state news, that the US government is scared of.)
You engage with the people outside the "news bubble" (because, um, that's what we've got nowadays. Most people don't consume news from television, papers, or anything "mainstream" (including OANN and fox news). ) You gotta engage with people, that's the truest thing in politics, advertising and joke-telling.
I just went through Illinois, and though it does have plenty of corn, I wager there's more Empire apple growers, and Finger Lakes wineries than Illinois corn hustlers. New York is practically all farming, once you get out of cities -- and more the small time farmers, the boutique cheddars, rather than industrial "nobody lives here" Iowa.
Wasn't impressed with Harris, but that was because she was a grade D politician hired to not outshine Joe "the Demented" Biden, who was a grade C politician At Best in 2020. (In 2008? Man, that guy shone like the Blarney stone. Pure Irish wit and grace.)
Bernie Sanders, I shit you not, reaches across the aisle. Folks on the right like him, and they say stuff like, "Well, at least he's honest." And that means something to the Right. They'll say, "If he'll sit across from us at a table and really listen to our skeptical conservatism, we can work with him."
Getting Elected in Vermont gives you guns on your side, which is a positive in Pennsylvania (and I think Michigan too). Bernie wasn't sunk by the electorate, he was sunk by Hillary Clinton, deliberately shifting behind the scenes so that the Socialist wouldn't Win. Pissed off a lot of Democrats, that did. Most of them haven't voted democrat since.
Yeah, the moderate candidates prevail. Moderate like Trump, the 1990's new york democrat, who walks a peace-ticket and brings the whole damn military along for the ride (Trust me, you lose a brother to war, you ain't so damn anxious to send your other brother out to fight). That's the trick of moderation -- Trump's got the rural Democrats around here, and they're strongly pro-Trump. They also still believe in FDR, social security, and looking out for each other.
Trick with the Democrats is having someone competent enough to figure out where a "moderate" lives. It ain't the "new woke religion" that's for sure. If you wanted my "probably stupid" pick, it'd be the bloke who fixes some black city up from shite to shinola. Have some big ideas, walk and talk like you got something to fix that pretty much everyone wants fixing, and leave the rural states alone like they like it.
The fact that you think Bernie "coulda been a contender" is consistent with the fact that most people of all stripes think there guy will win. You take a close race and poll the sides and 90% of the Rs and Ds think there guy will win.
I have no idea, maybe he could, we wont ever know. It is speculation or the fallacy of "hypothesis contrary to fact".
It is true that Bernie has a populist flare that can get the working class white voters, but it also loses the Romney moderate suburban GOP. Railing at the billionaires is nothing that ever plays in the US. They like billionaires, they just elected one. The old socialist class warfare has played like a lead balloon in politics. Bernie does come across as sincere and personable, more than Hillary or Harris, but he never attracted the black vote and lost every state in the primaries with a heavy black population, and you cant do that and win the Democratic primary. He did great in Utah and Idaho, Blacks tend to like the establishment Democrats
Bernie has only won in Vermont which says little to do and why I would say choose somebody like my former governor Roy Cooper who won twice in NC in 2016 and 2020 when Trump took the state. Or Andy Basheer. Or swing state winners like Whitmer or Shapiro. Because winning a swing state takes a much different approach. Any Democratic candidate can win in NY, VT, CA, MA. Show me a left candidate than can win a swing state. There aren't any.
“I worry that liberals and progressives might be falling in love with Newsom for the wrong reasons.”
Newsom-mania reminds me of the adulation bestowed upon another Californian, now a guest of the Federal Government, Michael Avenatti. In 2018, Stormy Daniels’s lawyer was worshipped as a Democratic god (he even claimed he was the Democrats’ best shot for the Presidency in 2020, and a lot of Democrats believed him), only to be revealed as a criminal a few years later. While I don’t think legal jeopardy is in Gavin Newsom’s future, I also don’t believe his current celebrity will translate into the nomination in 2028. The Newsom - Ocasio Cortez - Buttigieg threesome (sorry) you cite is more likely a function of name recognition than anything else.
Newsom has terrible political instincts, so I expect he will waste this goodwill by having the Idaho killer on his podcast or something. In the meantime, I will happily be entertained by anyone who’s able to annoy Trump.
This might be the most accurate piece of current political analysis! Have you read any of the academic political science takes on Trump and pro-wrestling? This one is great: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1478929920963827. Trump is the greatest Heel of all time. And this heel-dom has given the GOP a practically unassailable brand, in which the more terrible, mendacious, and outrageous it is, the more it is on brand. Trump is sincerely insincere, and many Americans would rather be lied to with a wink, than with the Democrats brand of condescending insincere sincerity. And this Democratic type of lying keeps them acting like jobbers. Or worse, makes them think they're the ref, only to have Trump clobber them over the head with a folding chair. Newsom could be the Face we need, but it will only work if he re-brands himself as the Ultimate Warrior, and channels an unapologetically fervent and sincere sincerity for the USA. This will mean pulling no punches with the USA-haters on the Left. Remember, the only thing Trump has sincere sincerity for is himself. And the Democratic loveless love for "shared humanity" has created a crappy upper-management corporate mental health "wellness" campaign that is incapable of solving structural problems and grappling with the reality of threats to our democracy and national security. It's a shame that Mayor Pete, upon Harris's defeat, didn't stepped into the role of unabashed protector of American liberty and constitutional protections. He has the brainpower to outwit and outquip Trump, military service to give sincerity to his love of country, and a personal stake in the constitutional dialectic of "good citizenship" and progressive-leaning freedom of consciousness.
Holy schnickes (RIP Chris Farley). I’m a conservative Republican and I still love that hot take. Not that I’d vote for Pete, but I’d at least (probably) respect him. And of course, Trump is problematic. Yet he keeps overturning previous stupidity. So Mr Saturn Driver has some really good insight, imho. Candidate quality matters. In a two party, first-past-the-post, you just need the better of the two parties, amongst the majority of the (Electoral College) country.
Aw, thanks for the nice feedback! I wish I had a Hulkamania Foam Finger emoji to show my appreciation. Yep, the Left keeps handing itself over on a silver platter failing to understand the strength of Trump's showmanship. If they were smart and understood the heel-face dynamic, they could use Trump as the "blame" for large-scale institutional resets while meanwhile cleaning house of the institutional excesses that have beleaguered progressivism. For example, if Newsom really understood this dynamic, he would be using Trump's dogged attacks on woke to remove ineffective-if-not-iatrogenic identitarian curriculum from CA schools and replace it with a statewide moonshot for effective reading instruction and increased funding for foreign-language instruction.
... the forces of Chaos within the democratic party DID vote for Trump for this reason, yes, boy howdy they did! (Tariffs, for example, never got "undone" under Biden, and he happily blamed Trump for all of them --> plenty of other institutional resets are happening, and the liberals get to roll them alll back.).
... employing the forces of Chaos may not be good for the Democratic Party in the short term.
A lot of Democratic Governance could use a good burninating.
Like Jeff, I'm amused by Newsom's social media trolling, have doubts about him as a Presidential candidate, and would much prefer Buttigieg. But I'm starting to worry that Trump has changed the rules of engagement so much that we're, in military terms, re-fighting the last war instead of preparing for the next one. Maybe moderation is no longer considered a virtue by enough people, and politics has become entertainment, and performative stunts are more valuable than well-thought-out positions. Mind you, I'm not sure if that's so, but I worry that it is becoming so.
If the Dems are serious about winning, they’ll nominate a sane, centre-left on the economy, centre on social issues Southern or Midwestern governor (no Tampon Tim didn’t count). They won’t because the primary base is comprised of blue-haired women and castrated demi-men who’ll take the exact wrong message and go for someone swing states hate like the devil (note for those people, in normal America, the devil is considered bad.)
Andy Beshear and Josh Shapiro would both be very solid choices for the Democratic Party in 2028, and Gretchen Whitmer wouldn't be bad either.
The DNC might try and keep Shapiro out, though--a Jewish candidate in the primaries might set off a civil war among the party's activist class. (This is also true for the GOP, mind.)
Just another troll likely who thinks that making what we can call an "I hate broccoli" statement adds to anything. Who cares. He doesn't like Newsom. No content or reason given as if his disapproval adds to anything.
Now does he/she really care or is the point just to aggravate other people and trigger us, like the guy in 4th grade making farting noises in the back of the room.
What if Trump continues to fuck things up so royally that by 2028, fatigue has set in and voters are ready to vote for a goddamn day old ham sandwich just to move on? In 2008, McCain didn’t stand a chance because of his predecessor’s standing, and anything with an R next to its name was toxic.
Also, more idiots - excuse me, voters - simply vote based on, “oh yeah, I heard of that guys name” than anyone else. So, advantage Newsom, I guess?
Mark Kelly wouldn’t win the hair primary, but I think he’d be a great candidate, because he could deflect any criticism with “fuck you im an astronaut. Are you an astronaut? Then stfu”
"Good Candidate Who Can’t Win Because He’s Gay" . . . I don't think this is exactly correct. I think a gay candidate who projects wisdom and gravitas might have a shot at winning. However, that photo of Buttigeig wearing the male nursing bra will never go away. It makes Dukakis in a tank look like Rambo by comparison.
My take for what it's worth. This past weekend the photograph of US troops unfurling the red carpet for a monstrous and implacably evil child kidnapping/killing war criminal blew my mind - it was the photo of the flag raising on Mount Suribachi in complete reverse. It got me very down. This morning I gazed upon a portrait of a benign Jesus placing his hand on Gavin's shoulder and I burst out laughing. Like the recent South Park episodes, I NEEDED that. Desperately. Like Jeff and many readers, I have my doubts about Newsome's viability as a presidential candidate. But this is political jui-jitsu combat played at a very high level and it just may succeed where all other strategies have thus far failed. BTW, between Putin and Epstein, does anyone else appreciate Trump's almost demonic affinity for the at-scale tormenters of children? Fucking amazing.
It is like democrats don't understand that you keep your enemies close. TDS makes idiots of the infected no matter how allegedly educated the infected may be.
Well, what exactly is TDS? I’m a white middle aged, politically moderate slightly upper middle class suburban dad. And I revile Trump with every fiber of my being because he is objectively, empirically hateful and growing more so with every passing day. TDS just seems more and more like an empty slogan reflexively used by Trump supporters.
Yeah, there’s this annoying idea that if you can accuse someone of “__ Derangement Syndrome”, then you win the argument by default and they couldn’t possibly be justified in their objection to whatever the argument is about.
At this point, it’s basically gaslighting exactly because Trump has exceeded our worst fears about who he is and the damage he’s causing.
. In any event, we don’t talk about pol pot derangement syndrome or Stalin derangement syndrome. Some fuckers earn and deserve the widespread hatred they incite.
It's actually a specific thing, plenty of people despise Trump without suffering TDS, to me the line is when the hatred becomes all consuming and reality distorting, like those people who can't help but bring him up at every opportunity or deny that he's often funny.
If I don't find any specific person funny, I have Derangement Syndrome about that person? Seems like a stretch.
Look how much you had to twist my words around there; you can find whoever you like funny or not, but categorically denying that someone is funny is something else.
What is the difference between not finding someone funny and “categorically denying” they are funny?
I just want to add that Mayor Pete isn’t unelectable because he’s gay. He’s unelectable because his last name is Buttigieg, as point (1) of 19 points I could mention.
I do remember you voting for the "at-scale" tormenting of children. Yes, you, dipshit online Democratic voter. You voted for "No More Kids In Cages" before you bothered to learn about why Obama put them in cages in the first place.
Texas Brothels wanted to use ittie bittie brown children, kidnapped across the border, as fucktoys. Whole new "at-scale" business, complete with murder once the perpetually raped children get too old to be "pretty or tight" anymore.
Turns out ICE under Obama decided to put a stop to the "new main street businesses." You may not like ICE, but they did good.
Joe Biden worked under Obama while all this was going down. He deliberately campaigned on "give the South of the Border Children back to their kidnappers."
... or didn't you get the message when Trump started requiring blood tests to release the kids?
Newsom is trying to imitate Trump's style but of course it's completely fake. He will excite the contingent of Democratic voters who can't tell the difference between affected symbolic behavior and authenticity, but the schticky, manipulative fakeness of it will repel everyone else.
And if Newsom somehow becomes the candidate the election will come down to a referendum on the condition of LA and San Francisco: Do you want your whole country to look like that?
He’s not “trying to imitate Trump’s style”, he’s making fun of the guy, and with great success. This is not even remotely hard to understand.
Bingo
If making fun of the guy was an effective strategy against him, Trump's political career would have been dead and buried when Barack Obama thoroughly roasted him at the Correspondent's Dinner in 2011. But how did that work out?
Newsom could maybe try governing California well and see if that's more persuasive to voters.
I haven't been keeping up, but he was ridiculing him and magaworld's head is going to explode.
"Trump's political career would have been dead and buried when Barack Obama thoroughly roasted him at the Correspondent's Dinner in 2011. But how did that work out?"
Get real.
Lmao that is an easy referendum - it would be sweet if every state had a global entertainment powerhouse like LA and a capital of the tech world like SF.
If Newsom could convince voters that he's responsible for the successes of Hollywood and Silicon Valley but not the heroin needles, crime, and piles of human shit in the streets or the $135 billion stump of a rail line between the cities, he wouldn't need to debase himself by trying to imitate Trump's belligerent busker mannerisms.
But that is not what the average American thinks but of homeless encampments, shoplifting, astronomical rents, budget deficits, sanctuary cities. And liberals, should face up to reality that there is a reason that people are leaving the state.
I am a Dem but there is a reason that no candidate from NY, CA, or MA has won since JFK whereas a good heartland governor like Clinton, Carter or today's Basheer, Cooper, can reach out beyond the liberal bubble and win some swing states and some of the non college demographic
Well yeah that’s a result of marketing and vibes; not actual policies and outcomes
Republicans get a pass for running the most poor and crime+drug addicted states in the entire nation, while Democrats don’t get credit for the most prosperous and successful places to live.
“Oh no don’t turn my town into Hollywood I want to be Appalachia instead”
So, Gavin is going for the vibe battle which how the electorate actually makes decisions
Cid I don't care whether it is marketing, the media, or what not. It is the world we live in and adjust or lose elections. It didn't stop Obama. Who is giving the GOP "a pass". If it is the voters that choose and we might consider what our message is, because I really dont think Trump is popular, it is just that people dislike Democrats more, now the party with the lowest approval probably since the GOP under Hoover. And repeated surveys note that is about border security, crime, and woke.
I will disagree with you on the GOP/Dem they are bad, we are good states. As stated I am a Dem but it is also obvious that people are voting with their feet and by and large leaving blue states for red states. People don't like aggressive panhandlers and unaffordable rents and DAs more concerned about social justice than public safety.
"Oh no don’t turn my town into Hollywood I want to be Appalachia instead"
In Appalachia I can actually afford to buy a house.
I prefer rural living too, but it's the age-old "city people vs. rural people" divide. City people don't WANT to live in Appalachia, which is why they bid up the cost of housing in cities and their suburbs. To a city person, you can "have" Appalachia, thank you very much. Again , I personally would prefer Appalachia over any city. But supply and demand determine housing costs just like they determine the cost of anything else.
Pittsburgh continues to be the Paris of Appalachia, and it continues to have very, very low housing costs.
Yes, Prucilla, you can do both, if you're willing to live in a third tier city rather than NYC.
Live in Pittsburgh, have a dozen deer in your backyard every night. Pastoral, peaceful. And plenty of bars.
Sure. I was just offering a reason why someone might prefer Appalachia to Hollywood.
... global entertainment powerhouse? Hollywoo is dead.
“We don’t have to wonder what America would look like under Gavin Newsome’s leadership, we can easily …. “
I feel the same way about Gavin. I've never liked him, but can't help but enjoy what he's doing now. But much as I love seeing him mock Trump, I'm also looking nervously around at my fellow Democrats thinking, "We're not going to just nominate him because of stuff like this, right, guys?!"
Well said. I think the hope is that this mockery of Republican politicians and their over-the-top lies and insane shit-postings will catch on with other Democratic officeholders and even the few media supporters still on air, once they've seen how rattled the Republican State Media personalities become by it. Newsome may be leading the charge, but if it gets picked up by others and upsets enough right-wing pod people and twittlers, some of them can also start gaining a bit of national attention and garner some name recognition over the next 3 years.
Seems like you will never read a comment that says, "I like Gavin Newsom." Everyone seems to dislike him. It's obvious why Republicans don't like him. But I am amazed by how many left leaners are unwilling to express anything but disdain as well.
Newsom's numbers are largely about that he seems like he is running. And early frontrunners - think Howard Dean or Hillary in 2008 don't mean a lot. It is refreshing that somebody might take on the bully on his terms as opposed to the Dems refusing to get their hands dirty.
Newsom's pivots on the homeless and transgenders in women's sports, indicates he is trying to pivot middle but California bestows too many albatrosses on anybody, like Trump nailing Harris for having supported taxpayer funded transgender surgery for prisoners. At least Newsom realizes he needs to reinvent himself on woke, where Harris never played defense, but in the end I just dont think that since JFK any Dem from NY, CA, MA went anywhere.
The other one who is willing to take off the gloves on Trump is Buttigieg and like Newsom he is willing to go on FOX and not just hide from the non liberal public.
Um. Who watches FOX? Nobody. It's not even on in rural doctor's offices these days.
You'd have said "Since JFK" any dem from NY, IL, CA, MA, MI, except there was that bloke Barak O. Sure. Moral is: you be from whereever, but you gotta bring it. And you gotta bigger hill to climb if you're from "liberal land" and not from Vermont (still liberal. Loves guns.)
Well you tell me, what is the viewership for FOX, don't just presume you know something. It is the third largest viewed of both cable and streaming and by far the largest news channel ( https://nationalmediaspots.com/stats-us-cable-broadcast-tv-network-rankings/ )
I said NY, CA, MA, you added the other two, Illinois is some of a combination heartland and big city state, and also Barack was pretty unique.
Fox isn't watched by most conservatives these days. I could pull the numbers, but you really want the advertising numbers (which I'm getting from a personal interview with a politico who's also an adman), which'll show you that pretty much only Boomers are watching, and not many of them. Yes, it's still the "largest news channel"... if you don't even put on OANN, which is what rural doctors put on their screens.
Yeah, I did. Because everyone knows which states are "Democratic In Everything Important." Illinois (once a rock solid Republican state) is one of them. So's Michigan. (I could mention Minnesota, but it's actually that weird DSA odd duck, so I'm leaving them out).
My point is that these "everyone knows" are both imprecise and "self-fulfilling prophecies" until they aren't.
Getting elected from one of these "everyone knows" is like trying to tell a Holocaust joke on stage. You're playing on hard mode. Doesn't mean it can't be done, but it does mean you hafta work for it. (Bernie worked like hell to get re-elected on the sympathy vote, lookitup. Democrats need more Bernies if they want to win again.)
No TV show is watched by most of anybody. Does that make all shows irrelevant? I did cite the numbers. The reality is that FOX News by the citation above is the third most widely viewed show and by far the largest watched news show, on cable and broadcast having an audience of the combined CNN and MSNBC. It is the most common news source for the right and undoubtedly some of the center. So a statement that "nobody" watches FOX seems nuts, and it is the type of myopic vision of many Dems that leads to their dwindling popularity. If they refuse to engage with those not in their bubble they will continue to dwindle. What is the relevance of what advertisers care about. Influence is eyeballs.
When you claim "imprecise" I was actually precise - since JFK no Dem candidate from MA, CA, and NY has won is what I said, which includes Harris, H Clinton, Dukakis, and Perry. I didn't include IL which is a strong Dem leaning state or MI which isn't even a Dem state, but a swing state. IL is less Dem leaning than MA, CA, NY, because it has a considerable amount of more rural farming areas. Obama was the strongest candidate the Dems have had since FDR, and probably would have won if he was from NY, but it does hamper the average politician like Harris or H Clinton who has to defend the type of political history that you have to have to succeed in those states. That Harris was on record for supporting transgender surgery for prisoners, regardless of your view, is the type of thing that might fly in CA but not in the heartland which you have to win.
What equivalent of Bernie Sanders has won any national election since FDR. Getting elected in Vermont won't qualify you to win MI and PA and that is why it is the moderate candidates who prevail in those states. he candidate in modern times that was most supported by the left of the party, one George McGovern set the record for the least electoral votes in modern times.
Game of Thrones had about a 30 million viewership by the end... but that's only on HBO. It's not counting later viewership, amazon prime, etc. I can reliably discuss Game of Thrones with people who have never seen Lord of the Rings, it's that big. I'd say, it actually had about 90 million viewers, with an extra 80 million who "watched a little" (probably more than my Mom did, who turned it off after the first beheading -- that's less than five minutes. My mom has never watched the Simpsons).
But you can't snowball with news. A documentary? Sure. Maybe 10 million people have seen Supersize Me. Word of "mouth" that one.
For news? It sure does. We no longer have a collective "this is what's what" whether distributed by the government or not.
We don't even have the Russian "Here are the Official Government Lies" (we banned them off youtube, didja notice? Remember when we were the country of Free Speech? Voice of Democracy was popular because we were more truthy than the Soviets. We didn't need to ban their news, because everyone (including ALL russians) knew it was bunk. Apparently there are lies (or possibly slim truths) the Russians can put on their state news, that the US government is scared of.)
You engage with the people outside the "news bubble" (because, um, that's what we've got nowadays. Most people don't consume news from television, papers, or anything "mainstream" (including OANN and fox news). ) You gotta engage with people, that's the truest thing in politics, advertising and joke-telling.
I just went through Illinois, and though it does have plenty of corn, I wager there's more Empire apple growers, and Finger Lakes wineries than Illinois corn hustlers. New York is practically all farming, once you get out of cities -- and more the small time farmers, the boutique cheddars, rather than industrial "nobody lives here" Iowa.
Wasn't impressed with Harris, but that was because she was a grade D politician hired to not outshine Joe "the Demented" Biden, who was a grade C politician At Best in 2020. (In 2008? Man, that guy shone like the Blarney stone. Pure Irish wit and grace.)
Bernie Sanders, I shit you not, reaches across the aisle. Folks on the right like him, and they say stuff like, "Well, at least he's honest." And that means something to the Right. They'll say, "If he'll sit across from us at a table and really listen to our skeptical conservatism, we can work with him."
Getting Elected in Vermont gives you guns on your side, which is a positive in Pennsylvania (and I think Michigan too). Bernie wasn't sunk by the electorate, he was sunk by Hillary Clinton, deliberately shifting behind the scenes so that the Socialist wouldn't Win. Pissed off a lot of Democrats, that did. Most of them haven't voted democrat since.
Yeah, the moderate candidates prevail. Moderate like Trump, the 1990's new york democrat, who walks a peace-ticket and brings the whole damn military along for the ride (Trust me, you lose a brother to war, you ain't so damn anxious to send your other brother out to fight). That's the trick of moderation -- Trump's got the rural Democrats around here, and they're strongly pro-Trump. They also still believe in FDR, social security, and looking out for each other.
Trick with the Democrats is having someone competent enough to figure out where a "moderate" lives. It ain't the "new woke religion" that's for sure. If you wanted my "probably stupid" pick, it'd be the bloke who fixes some black city up from shite to shinola. Have some big ideas, walk and talk like you got something to fix that pretty much everyone wants fixing, and leave the rural states alone like they like it.
The fact that you think Bernie "coulda been a contender" is consistent with the fact that most people of all stripes think there guy will win. You take a close race and poll the sides and 90% of the Rs and Ds think there guy will win.
I have no idea, maybe he could, we wont ever know. It is speculation or the fallacy of "hypothesis contrary to fact".
It is true that Bernie has a populist flare that can get the working class white voters, but it also loses the Romney moderate suburban GOP. Railing at the billionaires is nothing that ever plays in the US. They like billionaires, they just elected one. The old socialist class warfare has played like a lead balloon in politics. Bernie does come across as sincere and personable, more than Hillary or Harris, but he never attracted the black vote and lost every state in the primaries with a heavy black population, and you cant do that and win the Democratic primary. He did great in Utah and Idaho, Blacks tend to like the establishment Democrats
Bernie has only won in Vermont which says little to do and why I would say choose somebody like my former governor Roy Cooper who won twice in NC in 2016 and 2020 when Trump took the state. Or Andy Basheer. Or swing state winners like Whitmer or Shapiro. Because winning a swing state takes a much different approach. Any Democratic candidate can win in NY, VT, CA, MA. Show me a left candidate than can win a swing state. There aren't any.
Did you have to remind me of my beleaguered Jets?
Enjoyed this.
I should have said "Trigger warning: New York Jets content ahead."
The "content ahead" part not needed.
“I worry that liberals and progressives might be falling in love with Newsom for the wrong reasons.”
Newsom-mania reminds me of the adulation bestowed upon another Californian, now a guest of the Federal Government, Michael Avenatti. In 2018, Stormy Daniels’s lawyer was worshipped as a Democratic god (he even claimed he was the Democrats’ best shot for the Presidency in 2020, and a lot of Democrats believed him), only to be revealed as a criminal a few years later. While I don’t think legal jeopardy is in Gavin Newsom’s future, I also don’t believe his current celebrity will translate into the nomination in 2028. The Newsom - Ocasio Cortez - Buttigieg threesome (sorry) you cite is more likely a function of name recognition than anything else.
Newsom has terrible political instincts, so I expect he will waste this goodwill by having the Idaho killer on his podcast or something. In the meantime, I will happily be entertained by anyone who’s able to annoy Trump.
We know Newsom's smart and good looking. He's almost certainly a good athlete too. Fucker.
This might be the most accurate piece of current political analysis! Have you read any of the academic political science takes on Trump and pro-wrestling? This one is great: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1478929920963827. Trump is the greatest Heel of all time. And this heel-dom has given the GOP a practically unassailable brand, in which the more terrible, mendacious, and outrageous it is, the more it is on brand. Trump is sincerely insincere, and many Americans would rather be lied to with a wink, than with the Democrats brand of condescending insincere sincerity. And this Democratic type of lying keeps them acting like jobbers. Or worse, makes them think they're the ref, only to have Trump clobber them over the head with a folding chair. Newsom could be the Face we need, but it will only work if he re-brands himself as the Ultimate Warrior, and channels an unapologetically fervent and sincere sincerity for the USA. This will mean pulling no punches with the USA-haters on the Left. Remember, the only thing Trump has sincere sincerity for is himself. And the Democratic loveless love for "shared humanity" has created a crappy upper-management corporate mental health "wellness" campaign that is incapable of solving structural problems and grappling with the reality of threats to our democracy and national security. It's a shame that Mayor Pete, upon Harris's defeat, didn't stepped into the role of unabashed protector of American liberty and constitutional protections. He has the brainpower to outwit and outquip Trump, military service to give sincerity to his love of country, and a personal stake in the constitutional dialectic of "good citizenship" and progressive-leaning freedom of consciousness.
Holy schnickes (RIP Chris Farley). I’m a conservative Republican and I still love that hot take. Not that I’d vote for Pete, but I’d at least (probably) respect him. And of course, Trump is problematic. Yet he keeps overturning previous stupidity. So Mr Saturn Driver has some really good insight, imho. Candidate quality matters. In a two party, first-past-the-post, you just need the better of the two parties, amongst the majority of the (Electoral College) country.
Aw, thanks for the nice feedback! I wish I had a Hulkamania Foam Finger emoji to show my appreciation. Yep, the Left keeps handing itself over on a silver platter failing to understand the strength of Trump's showmanship. If they were smart and understood the heel-face dynamic, they could use Trump as the "blame" for large-scale institutional resets while meanwhile cleaning house of the institutional excesses that have beleaguered progressivism. For example, if Newsom really understood this dynamic, he would be using Trump's dogged attacks on woke to remove ineffective-if-not-iatrogenic identitarian curriculum from CA schools and replace it with a statewide moonshot for effective reading instruction and increased funding for foreign-language instruction.
... the forces of Chaos within the democratic party DID vote for Trump for this reason, yes, boy howdy they did! (Tariffs, for example, never got "undone" under Biden, and he happily blamed Trump for all of them --> plenty of other institutional resets are happening, and the liberals get to roll them alll back.).
... employing the forces of Chaos may not be good for the Democratic Party in the short term.
A lot of Democratic Governance could use a good burninating.
The problematic thing about pretentious motivated intellectuals is when they confuse their pretense with serious analysis.
Oh, I'm very serious. Summer Slam 1990 steel cage event between Rick Rude and the Ultimate Warrior serious.
the wrestling match you referenced is lost on me, but I gave a like just because some rando insulted you in a pretentious criticism.
Like Jeff, I'm amused by Newsom's social media trolling, have doubts about him as a Presidential candidate, and would much prefer Buttigieg. But I'm starting to worry that Trump has changed the rules of engagement so much that we're, in military terms, re-fighting the last war instead of preparing for the next one. Maybe moderation is no longer considered a virtue by enough people, and politics has become entertainment, and performative stunts are more valuable than well-thought-out positions. Mind you, I'm not sure if that's so, but I worry that it is becoming so.
Not only is 'that so', but it's been true for the last 10 years at minimum! Worry no more.
Isn't the engagement off? I thought they sent Guilfoyle halfway across the world so Junior didn't have to look at her anymore.
Oh, I didn't know that. I've updated the article.
(I blame Fuzetti...this is his beat)
They did. I can’t blame them/him.
The arguments in favor of Newsom all sound the same as the arguments in favor of Walz, and they come from the same people.
Good article. Please return to coverage of Sydney Sweeney’s boobs. Thank you.
He promised non-stop coverage!
If the Dems are serious about winning, they’ll nominate a sane, centre-left on the economy, centre on social issues Southern or Midwestern governor (no Tampon Tim didn’t count). They won’t because the primary base is comprised of blue-haired women and castrated demi-men who’ll take the exact wrong message and go for someone swing states hate like the devil (note for those people, in normal America, the devil is considered bad.)
Andy Beshear and Josh Shapiro would both be very solid choices for the Democratic Party in 2028, and Gretchen Whitmer wouldn't be bad either.
The DNC might try and keep Shapiro out, though--a Jewish candidate in the primaries might set off a civil war among the party's activist class. (This is also true for the GOP, mind.)
Even in recognizing just how horrible Newsom is, the TDS sufferers cannot help themself.
You have an actual point, or do you just love holding up a “I am retarded” sign?
Just another troll likely who thinks that making what we can call an "I hate broccoli" statement adds to anything. Who cares. He doesn't like Newsom. No content or reason given as if his disapproval adds to anything.
Now does he/she really care or is the point just to aggravate other people and trigger us, like the guy in 4th grade making farting noises in the back of the room.
Counterpoint: will anything matter by 2028?
What if Trump continues to fuck things up so royally that by 2028, fatigue has set in and voters are ready to vote for a goddamn day old ham sandwich just to move on? In 2008, McCain didn’t stand a chance because of his predecessor’s standing, and anything with an R next to its name was toxic.
Also, more idiots - excuse me, voters - simply vote based on, “oh yeah, I heard of that guys name” than anyone else. So, advantage Newsom, I guess?
A lot of Americans just vote for whoever (male) has the best hair, don’t they? In which case, Newsom’s the guy. And please god, not Mark Kelly.
Mark Kelly wouldn’t win the hair primary, but I think he’d be a great candidate, because he could deflect any criticism with “fuck you im an astronaut. Are you an astronaut? Then stfu”
Says someone who voted Obama, Clinton, Biden and Harris. The irony is hilarious.
"Good Candidate Who Can’t Win Because He’s Gay" . . . I don't think this is exactly correct. I think a gay candidate who projects wisdom and gravitas might have a shot at winning. However, that photo of Buttigeig wearing the male nursing bra will never go away. It makes Dukakis in a tank look like Rambo by comparison.