Five Economic Metrics to Track Now That BLS Data is Compromised

Goodbye monthly jobs report, hello Craig Index

Now that Trump has fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner who filed a weak jobs report, the quality of BLS data is suddenly suspect. Trump will surely choose a new commissioner who will publish flattering data even if it’s not true. The cornerstone of knowledge about our economy has been eroded, and businesses and investors are scrambling to find data they can trust.

Below are five unorthodox-but-useful economic measures to serve as a stopgap in these uncertain times. These measures might not be as reliable as the BLS’ meticulously compiled surveys, but they still have some predictive power. And now that the trustworthiness of BLS data has been thrown into question, these might be the best economic indicators we have.

1. The Craig Index

If Craig is drawing a steady paycheck, then the economy is white hot. If any employer has decided that Craig — a paintball enthusiast with “COOCHIE CRUSHER” tattooed on his lower back who seems to have a can of Modelo surgically fused to his right hand — is their best option, then the bottom of the labor market barrel is being scraped raw. If someone is willing to take a chance on “The BlitzCraig” after Denny’s, Cinnabon, Fast Pool Cleaners 4 U and the fireworks stand on Route 17 all cut bait on him in less than a week, then the economy has gone supernova.

Please note: This indicator only applies if Craig is employed by a legitimate business. If Craig reports having “irons in the fire” or “a plan so simple (he) can’t believe nobody thought of it before,” that is not employment — that’s a crackpot scheme that will fall apart in a month. Breeding caymans “for home protection” is not a job, nor is day-trading sports memorabilia, nor is “managing” some poor woman he met at the dirt bike track whom he says will become “the John Cena of OnlyFans”. An actual W-2 must be involved, but if some intrepid risk-taker actually files one, Jerome Powell should be alerted post-haste.

2. The sanity/insanity of sales at used car lots and furniture wholesalers

In normal times, there’s at least one retailer in your metro area who offers “prices so low that a CAT scan should be performed to see if I’ve suffered irreversible cranial damage.” They often appear in their ads wearing a straight jacket and being administered shock therapy, and sometimes a buxom nurse catches them with a big net. These are the conditions that prevail in a healthy economy.

But when consumer markets are weak, the tenor of these offers sometimes changes considerably. Be on the lookout for retailers offering “eminently sane prices,” “rational and grounded financing plans,” or “prices so in line with expectations that you’ll think my doctor has accurately calibrated my meds” — these are harbingers of a recession. A good rule of thumb is that for every local retailer appearing on TV in normal business attire not flanked by a child in oversized boxing gloves vowing to “knock out high prices” or a man in a gorilla suit swearing that you’ll “go bananas for these deals,” expect a 50 basis point cut from the Fed.

3. Time spent behind unbelievably old ladies searching for exact change in small, floral change purses

In a normal week, a typical American spends 4-6 hours in line behind feeble nonagenarians rummaging through tiny, flower-covered change purses as they attempt to pay for miniscule transactions with exact change. Economists sometimes count the number of people lined up behind these antediluvian crones and multiply that by the number of times in an hour that they hear someone mutter “Come the fuck on, Betty White” to compile a number they call “the granny grocery store metric”.

When times are tough, Americans can spend 10, 12, even 15 hours a week as dust-covered biddies who look like they probably remember the Hapsburg Empire search for the precise amount of money to buy a book of matches, or a single Tic-Tac. This happens because senior citizens worry that they might not be able to make ends meet if they don’t bring an entire fucking Albertsons to a stand-still while they rummage for a ha’penny that Grover Cleveland tossed from a carriage in 1885. When the economy is hot, these four-foot-tall Wives Of Yoda might produce paper money, or even a bank card that they have no clue how to use. But there’s a well-proven inverse relationship between the time that World War I surplus grannies spend literally blocking commerce and overall economic health.

4. Herds of frightened animals stampeding through the woods

Look around you: Are dozens if not hundreds of woodland creatures scampering by in a mad dash for safety? Are they sprinting — one after the other, predator and prey alike — in a single direction, spurred to action by their basest survival instinct? If so: It might be a good time to review your portfolio. A round of economic belt-tightening may be ahead.

Surveys have shown that being overrun by a throng of panicked woodland animals is often a precursor to bad economic news; the phenomenon was first observed when J.P. Morgan himself was trampled to death by a hundred beavers on October 27, 1929. Investors sometimes interpret hordes of frightened animals rushing by them in a mad dash for safety as a positive sign, perhaps due to the old adage: “When the marmosets flee, good luck cometh to thee.” But don’t be fooled — when every living thing around you is getting as far away from your present position as they can, that might not be good.

5. The universe telling you to let this shit ride

Sometimes, economic conditions are generally good. Profits are acceptable, and risk has been mitigated. What’s usually recommended in these moments is to consolidate gains and develop a new strategy. And we could do that…we totally could. Unless…okay, hear me out for a second…

We’re like: Hot right now. Everything’s working — it feels like we can do no wrong. Maybe the universe is telling us something — maybe we’re being paid back for all the shit we’ve been dragged through in the past. Maybe this is our moment, and maybe if we pack it in now, we’ll regret it for the rest of our lives. Honestly: THAT would be reckless, THAT would be the mistake. I’m saying we seize the moment and LET…THIS…SHIT…RIDE!!!

When this thinking predominates, the economy has entered a period of irrational exuberance. The economy might have had one-too-many mojitos, and if the economy has taken any kind of pills, edibles, or something given to it by “some dude at the concert”, then the economy’s bank card should be taken away. It can be said that “a bubble has formed”, or that “overheating” is possible, or that “you’re out of your fucking head, dude, and you’re gonna lose your shirt if you don’t stop now.” In these moments, it’s important to have an independent Federal Reserve or a really supportive half-brother who always has your back.

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Without a doubt, these metrics are not as good as the ones historically compiled by the BLS. But with the BLS in chaos, these will have to do; these will be our touchstones until the bureaucracy returns to normal. Let’s just hope that there aren’t too many hours lost to grannies searching for pennies, eminently reasonable non-deals at local retailers, and herds of frightened animals stampeding us to death before that happens.

Images generated by Stable Diffusion.

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