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Jonathan's avatar

I could not disagree more.

Like most criticism of the ongoing protests, this post disregards the reasons for the protests and the lack of popular support for the current government (which governs through executive orders despite no longer having a majority in parliament). But regardless of how legitimate the protests are, the high-level claims about protesting in general and its electoral consequences are completely off the mark. Here's some evidence that protests work, that they do not alienate voters, and that they have popular support.

The far right has always had a lead in the polls for the 2027 election, and the poll linked is from before the protests (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2027_French_presidential_election). Tying these polls to the recent protests is a stretch. The reasons for increasing far right popularity are plentiful, but France is not an isolated case, and the first places to look should be racism and paid-for media support (see https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vincent_Bollor%C3%A9#Construction_d'un_empire_m%C3%A9diatique_conservateur_et_r%C3%A9actionnaire).

There is little historical evidence that protests cause the parties supporting the protests to lose votes. "This is playing into the hands of the far right" is a tired line from the government and some media which intentionally implies that peaceful protests go hand in hand with looting and rioting, and shift the blame for the looting and rioting from the mismanaged and poorly allocated police to the protesters themselves. In reality, none of the political parties or unions calling for protests are calling for violence, looting, or rioting. The leader of the left party, interviewed on the following day, says so explicitly, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9oy1l8w8Ig.

What does "play into the hands of the far right" is the police doctrine enforced by the current government (escalation, repression) and false accusations (made by the government and relayed by the media) that the left party is responsible for looting and rioting. In Paris, at Place de la Republique, the starting location of the APPROVED protest, the protesters were tear gased repeatedly despite the protest being 100% lawful. It is this kind of police repression which leads to escalating violence. More generally, the brutal repression of protests has caused the European Comission to weigh in, reminding the french governement that "the right to peaceful protest is a fundamental right in all democratic countries and must be protected” (https://agenceurope.eu/en/bulletin/article/13963/22/social-mobilisations-european-commission-calls-for-distinction-between-peaceful-demonstrators-and-those-who-commit-violence).

There is lots of historical precedent for protests resulting in real change. The recent protests are an echo of the 2018 gilet jaunes protests, which were successful in opposing the "carbon tax" proposed by the government (see https://www.radiofrance.fr/franceinter/voici-la-liste-exhaustive-de-tout-ce-que-les-gilets-jaunes-ont-obtenu-depuis-le-debut-du-mouvement-4647551).

The current protests are supported by the majority. They had an unprecendeted turnout, and 55% of pollers support or sympathize with the protests, while only 35% are opposed or hostile (see https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10322-pres-mobilisations-sociales-elabe-16-octobre.pdf).

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