Maybe a compromise could be closed captioning for the innumerate.
(Yes, I am stealing this joke from Dave Barry’s “closed captioning for the humor-impaired,” which, by the way, Mauer, you could also use around here given the number of comments that fail to understand that jokes are being made).
Accommodating the stupidest people in our society has caused many, many problems. Maybe there could be two apps. One you sign up for with a test on probabilities and the other one you get if you fail that test.
That's a brilliant idea! Doesn't even have to be two apps, but a module for any app that does forecasting, which tests the user's understanding of probability, and then shapes the information the app offers based on the results.
My favorite is "possible risk." So, is there a risk or not? Possibly? How is a "possible risk" different than a plain risk? Is it on a scale between "slight risk" and "likely risk"?
A Flood Warning means that the entire river is going up 15 feet. That means "The Bathtub" is going to flood, again (folks experienced with "there are four rivers, including one under the city" will know what I mean).
Do Not Park There. Do not bike there (there's mud for days, and I've gone careening onto my now-muddy ass, while on a bike... days later).
A flood is SLOW, very very very slow. You have hours, and you'll know it because there's a trickle and then it gets bigger. Forecasters can predict it pretty well, because the rain's already come down. We're just waiting on it to get to downtown. And they generally predict it with "Mon Wharf flooded" or "Big problem: Interstate under water in the Bathtub Region."
A FLASH flood watch, a FLASH flood warning? Those are "danger" signals. Those are 10 feet of water running down a ravine, run upwards as quickly as possible. If you don't know you're safe, RUN UP. I'm serious about all of this, it's nothing to screw around with. We actually have "flood control gates" to prevent people from driving down streets during "flash flood time" -- you don't have enough warning -- we know where the problem roads are -- like a train, don't try to risk it by shooting ahead of the storm. But there's a different reason why flash floods are dangerous -- they're dangerous because they're "extremely local" -- you can be a valley away, and not be getting rained on. (Or, colorfully, be up on the WV mountain staring at the cactus (and perfectly dry), while the campground with your tent is getting inundated in rain).
North Carolina got devastated because people who thought they were safe, really weren't. We may need a different category for "holy shit, everybody run -- you aren't safe even if you think you are."
My point is, we have different warnings. We may need a few more... but a Flood Watch, a Flood Warning, those are very, very very different from a Flash Flood Watch.
100 people died, after the Weather Service sent out 22 different warnings. Yes, that's warning fatigue, and they oughtn't send that many out. But for everyone hiding, they've done their work, they've saved lives.
We comedy writers should file a CLASS ACTION lawsuit against Felon President Donald J. Trump for being too easy to lampoon. I admit it: we used to write jokes; now we just quote him!
Trump will really say anything if you make it funny enough. Even market research on how to run from alligators, apparently (zig-zag, do not run straight).
Loved Trump's take on the classic WKYK, "Flagpoles! I'm ditching the G7 to talk about Flagpoles!" Reporters all like: "we have to cover this? Yep, we have to cover this."
That's so true! Sometimes even I feel guilty about making fun of him because it's maybe making him more popular -- but then I realized what a new poll revealed about MAGA nation: 21% are illiterate (can't read) and just over half of them (51%) read below a sixth grade level. So ... Obviously, I feel better. Maybe James Carville said it best: "I know I'm smarter than they are because they're so FUCKING STUPID!"
99.1% is what Mexico is at. Do you really think we're 10 times as illiterate as Mexico is? No, wait, you're talking at least 20 times (assuming all Americans are MAGA nation), and probably about 40 times.
MAGA nation has plenty of crayon eaters, it's true (spoiler: Marines said they tasted better than the new tubular rations).
But... the person who is the dumbest is generally the know-it-all. Can't take a clue-by-four to the forehead and come away with anything other than "I'm Right, You're Wrong."
This was a supposed poll among something like a 1,000 registered Repubs who voted in the last election -- in other words. Current! But -- and I'm sorry about this -- I don't remember the source. That is a big deal to me. But as a satirist looking for news to make fun of, I only have my notes. It might be early stage SENILITY -- not recording or remembering the source. Or, a struggling old writer trying to fill a FREE daily newsletter THE DAILY PITH with some smiles. Nearly reliable reporting with a sense of humor. All the news that's fit to SKEWER!
You don't need the source to know that's propaganda (paid poll, in order to stroke people's egos, and make them feel better). Midwits love getting high on their own farts, and the "Joe Biden Democrats" love being told they're smart.
There's an easy solution: all students must take a class where they play X-COM for 40 minutes, 5 days a week. After they miss all those 95% shots, they'll have a better understanding of probability.
Funnily enough, they fudged the percentages in X-COM 2 to lean in favor of the player on lower difficulties. My guess is it was due in part to how poorly most people grasp probability and how salty they got missing those 80-95% shots.
Thank you thank you thank you for this confirmation that the Weather Channel is indeed cooking their stats. I've been telling my wife for years that 40% and lower means IT WILL NOT RAIN. The Channel had obviously set this as the lowest threshold they would post if there was a cloud anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere. In however many years the WC has been on, I don't think I've ever seen it rain when there's a 40% probability. Conversely, the odds jump immediately to 60% when there is a chance of rain...and then it always does rain at least a little. The actual fact is, the WC knows with perfect accuracy when and where it's going to rain but fears to use its power to effectively warn us, because lawyers.
For the love of god, man, read the technical NWS discussion. Then you'll get when the models don't match, when your guy's going with his gut, and when the clouds are likely to crash planes (downdrafts).
I find that sitting down and talking with your doctor/dentist tends to get some real data. Particularly if you start out with "I'm an engineer, so I want some numbers..." -- "How often does someone get an infection from this?" (answer: not often. further answer, upon inquiry: "if you start feeling shooting pains 3 days after surgery, ring us, that's a problem.")
Unfortunately, knowledge extraction is like bargaining -- the point is to convey your fundamental knowledge of reality itself, so that the doctor/knowledgeable person can trust that you will understand "actually, the worst risk of nearly every surgery is the anesthesia -- if that goes wrong, you're dead, and it goes catastrophically wrong more often than the people with knives."
I grew up in the Midwest and now live in the Texas Hill Country. Growing up everyone would be like, "Oh there's a tornado watch/warning. Big storm coming tomorrow. Etc." It was always a conversation topic when the weather was sketchy. Granted, most people ignored tornado watches/warnings. People were basically able to look outside and be like, "Oh this one is serious" or "Meh it's fine let's go get some dinner." (A form of semi-fake regional knowing I still pride myself on definitely having.)
Down here? Not sure I've ever heard someone bring up a Flash Flood Watch or Warning once in 12 years. It's just a total nothingburger to 99% of people. Probably because most of them don't live on the banks of a tiny, violent river. But I'm sitting here REALLY wondering how the property owners who got hit weren't more vigilant. Those RV parks are straight up on top of the water. (The camps were set a little further back and basically needed a Biblical flood for what happened to happen.)
Flash Floods all look Biblical. 20 feet wall of water (that's not that much water, it's going down a tiny ravine) is not uncommon. Any place that has them frequently knows what to do. I'd wager folks in the Texas Hill Country haven't had catastrophic flash floods in a while.
North Carolina lost over a hundred people from a MUCH MUCH worse storm than Texas got. North Carolina gets flash floods a lot, though. (12 to 16 inches of water, though... that's "holy shit, everybody run" territory). But, less than a year later, the same parts are getting another major "flash flood warning."
I've got to say, that flood warnings are easier to describe. "Mon Wharf floods" versus "Bathtub floods." Flash Floods are hyper-local, vary on a stream by stream basis, and the weatherman can't really say "2 foot wall of water versus 20 foot." Weatherman can say, "the ground's already saturated, if you see heavy rain, flee UP."
Tornado Watch/Warning generally means you look to see how windy it is, and how much the wind is cyclonic (aka "is it spinning"?) We've had "quasi tornados" before, right above our house. "Please don't take the roof, God, please."
Ha. I bet in Texas they blink less about prescribing ivermectin.
Doctors are very risk-adverse people, being generally midwits. This means when they kill people, they do so in great numbers, and with great vigor (Asprin? Love it. Here, have 30 grams per day!)
My regular pain doctor told me that ivermectin cured his COVID. I was floored
He seemed so cool.
Oh! Yesterday a TX doctor went on social media and wrote "ha ha Maga you got what you voted for" (about drownings) and already she's been disavowed, fired and the state is investigating.
Placebo effect is regularly measured to be stronger when pain relief is involved.
Ivermectin, by the way, is a prophylactic for COVID-19, along with a lot of other viruses (all studies done on it as a curative for an ongoing infection are designed to be bunk and designed to fail). It's also prescribed to more than 10% of the world's population on a daily basis, most of whom are illiterate.
Naturally, the CDC believes that ranchers can't measure dosages of ivermectin without poisoning themselves, despite the fact that ranchers measure dosages for calves and cows all day long. Or could there be a different reason the CDC doesn't want people taking a nearly harmless drug?
(Do not use HCQ. HCQ is dangerous if you have a heart condition, and only really works with zinc supplementation).
“They could also get roasted on Yelp, aka ‘the Karen’s lawsuit.’” - this subscription is worth every penny.
Agreed. Gold!
Maybe a compromise could be closed captioning for the innumerate.
(Yes, I am stealing this joke from Dave Barry’s “closed captioning for the humor-impaired,” which, by the way, Mauer, you could also use around here given the number of comments that fail to understand that jokes are being made).
(THOSE ARE NOT EDITORS. THOSE ARE MY DOGS.)
Oh man, classic! Dave Barry made a great impression on my young, humor-learnin’ mind.
Okay, it sounds like you found someone rather stupid to take sawdust advice from.
https://www.iflscience.com/flour-can-explode-and-its-important-that-you-know-that-74064
Flour can also explode. Wonder why folks don't make "scare videos" about exploding flour?
In a sign that I have perhaps read too many horsey books, hay is FAR more likely to catch fire than either of the above.
https://news.okstate.edu/articles/agriculture/2020/stotts_braums-fire.html
Accommodating the stupidest people in our society has caused many, many problems. Maybe there could be two apps. One you sign up for with a test on probabilities and the other one you get if you fail that test.
That's a brilliant idea! Doesn't even have to be two apps, but a module for any app that does forecasting, which tests the user's understanding of probability, and then shapes the information the app offers based on the results.
My favorite is "possible risk." So, is there a risk or not? Possibly? How is a "possible risk" different than a plain risk? Is it on a scale between "slight risk" and "likely risk"?
Could you repeat that again?
A Flood Warning means that the entire river is going up 15 feet. That means "The Bathtub" is going to flood, again (folks experienced with "there are four rivers, including one under the city" will know what I mean).
https://www.pa.gov/agencies/penndot/news-and-media/newsroom/district-11/2024/westbound-i-376-parkway-east-bathtub-section-closed-in-pittsburgh.html
There's other regions, including the 20th street bypass, too, that flood.
And then there's the Mon Wharf.
https://www.cbsnews.com/pittsburgh/news/mon-wharf-reopening-today-after-being-closed-due-to-extreme-flooding/
Do Not Park There. Do not bike there (there's mud for days, and I've gone careening onto my now-muddy ass, while on a bike... days later).
A flood is SLOW, very very very slow. You have hours, and you'll know it because there's a trickle and then it gets bigger. Forecasters can predict it pretty well, because the rain's already come down. We're just waiting on it to get to downtown. And they generally predict it with "Mon Wharf flooded" or "Big problem: Interstate under water in the Bathtub Region."
A FLASH flood watch, a FLASH flood warning? Those are "danger" signals. Those are 10 feet of water running down a ravine, run upwards as quickly as possible. If you don't know you're safe, RUN UP. I'm serious about all of this, it's nothing to screw around with. We actually have "flood control gates" to prevent people from driving down streets during "flash flood time" -- you don't have enough warning -- we know where the problem roads are -- like a train, don't try to risk it by shooting ahead of the storm. But there's a different reason why flash floods are dangerous -- they're dangerous because they're "extremely local" -- you can be a valley away, and not be getting rained on. (Or, colorfully, be up on the WV mountain staring at the cactus (and perfectly dry), while the campground with your tent is getting inundated in rain).
North Carolina got devastated because people who thought they were safe, really weren't. We may need a different category for "holy shit, everybody run -- you aren't safe even if you think you are."
My point is, we have different warnings. We may need a few more... but a Flood Watch, a Flood Warning, those are very, very very different from a Flash Flood Watch.
100 people died, after the Weather Service sent out 22 different warnings. Yes, that's warning fatigue, and they oughtn't send that many out. But for everyone hiding, they've done their work, they've saved lives.
We comedy writers should file a CLASS ACTION lawsuit against Felon President Donald J. Trump for being too easy to lampoon. I admit it: we used to write jokes; now we just quote him!
Trump will really say anything if you make it funny enough. Even market research on how to run from alligators, apparently (zig-zag, do not run straight).
Loved Trump's take on the classic WKYK, "Flagpoles! I'm ditching the G7 to talk about Flagpoles!" Reporters all like: "we have to cover this? Yep, we have to cover this."
That's so true! Sometimes even I feel guilty about making fun of him because it's maybe making him more popular -- but then I realized what a new poll revealed about MAGA nation: 21% are illiterate (can't read) and just over half of them (51%) read below a sixth grade level. So ... Obviously, I feel better. Maybe James Carville said it best: "I know I'm smarter than they are because they're so FUCKING STUPID!"
Link me that poll? I want to shred it.
Actually, I don't even need to shred it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_literacy_rate
99.1% is what Mexico is at. Do you really think we're 10 times as illiterate as Mexico is? No, wait, you're talking at least 20 times (assuming all Americans are MAGA nation), and probably about 40 times.
MAGA nation has plenty of crayon eaters, it's true (spoiler: Marines said they tasted better than the new tubular rations).
But... the person who is the dumbest is generally the know-it-all. Can't take a clue-by-four to the forehead and come away with anything other than "I'm Right, You're Wrong."
This was a supposed poll among something like a 1,000 registered Repubs who voted in the last election -- in other words. Current! But -- and I'm sorry about this -- I don't remember the source. That is a big deal to me. But as a satirist looking for news to make fun of, I only have my notes. It might be early stage SENILITY -- not recording or remembering the source. Or, a struggling old writer trying to fill a FREE daily newsletter THE DAILY PITH with some smiles. Nearly reliable reporting with a sense of humor. All the news that's fit to SKEWER!
You don't need the source to know that's propaganda (paid poll, in order to stroke people's egos, and make them feel better). Midwits love getting high on their own farts, and the "Joe Biden Democrats" love being told they're smart.
There's an easy solution: all students must take a class where they play X-COM for 40 minutes, 5 days a week. After they miss all those 95% shots, they'll have a better understanding of probability.
Unfortunately, kids today only understand how to play X.COM.
Oh, did I spoil the joke? (Ask 100 people, and nobody's understood it, I think I'm alright).
Funnily enough, they fudged the percentages in X-COM 2 to lean in favor of the player on lower difficulties. My guess is it was due in part to how poorly most people grasp probability and how salty they got missing those 80-95% shots.
Thank you thank you thank you for this confirmation that the Weather Channel is indeed cooking their stats. I've been telling my wife for years that 40% and lower means IT WILL NOT RAIN. The Channel had obviously set this as the lowest threshold they would post if there was a cloud anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere. In however many years the WC has been on, I don't think I've ever seen it rain when there's a 40% probability. Conversely, the odds jump immediately to 60% when there is a chance of rain...and then it always does rain at least a little. The actual fact is, the WC knows with perfect accuracy when and where it's going to rain but fears to use its power to effectively warn us, because lawyers.
For the love of god, man, read the technical NWS discussion. Then you'll get when the models don't match, when your guy's going with his gut, and when the clouds are likely to crash planes (downdrafts).
I might cancel my subscription.
Consider me triggered!
-engineer who lives this frustration daily
I find that sitting down and talking with your doctor/dentist tends to get some real data. Particularly if you start out with "I'm an engineer, so I want some numbers..." -- "How often does someone get an infection from this?" (answer: not often. further answer, upon inquiry: "if you start feeling shooting pains 3 days after surgery, ring us, that's a problem.")
Unfortunately, knowledge extraction is like bargaining -- the point is to convey your fundamental knowledge of reality itself, so that the doctor/knowledgeable person can trust that you will understand "actually, the worst risk of nearly every surgery is the anesthesia -- if that goes wrong, you're dead, and it goes catastrophically wrong more often than the people with knives."
“baseball has been a stats-based game since back when the bat was a Civil War soldier’s amputated leg.”
For those who have never seen it, enjoy:
https://youtu.be/GS39vMhag-A?feature=shared
Dammit. Now I have to watch Manchester by the Sea, knowing what’s gonna happen…kinda?
Never mind, I won’t be teased like that. I will not watch Manchester by the Sea.
I grew up in the Midwest and now live in the Texas Hill Country. Growing up everyone would be like, "Oh there's a tornado watch/warning. Big storm coming tomorrow. Etc." It was always a conversation topic when the weather was sketchy. Granted, most people ignored tornado watches/warnings. People were basically able to look outside and be like, "Oh this one is serious" or "Meh it's fine let's go get some dinner." (A form of semi-fake regional knowing I still pride myself on definitely having.)
Down here? Not sure I've ever heard someone bring up a Flash Flood Watch or Warning once in 12 years. It's just a total nothingburger to 99% of people. Probably because most of them don't live on the banks of a tiny, violent river. But I'm sitting here REALLY wondering how the property owners who got hit weren't more vigilant. Those RV parks are straight up on top of the water. (The camps were set a little further back and basically needed a Biblical flood for what happened to happen.)
Flash Floods all look Biblical. 20 feet wall of water (that's not that much water, it's going down a tiny ravine) is not uncommon. Any place that has them frequently knows what to do. I'd wager folks in the Texas Hill Country haven't had catastrophic flash floods in a while.
https://www.ncdhhs.gov/assistance/hurricane-helene-recovery-resources/hurricane-helene-storm-related-fatalities
North Carolina lost over a hundred people from a MUCH MUCH worse storm than Texas got. North Carolina gets flash floods a lot, though. (12 to 16 inches of water, though... that's "holy shit, everybody run" territory). But, less than a year later, the same parts are getting another major "flash flood warning."
I've got to say, that flood warnings are easier to describe. "Mon Wharf floods" versus "Bathtub floods." Flash Floods are hyper-local, vary on a stream by stream basis, and the weatherman can't really say "2 foot wall of water versus 20 foot." Weatherman can say, "the ground's already saturated, if you see heavy rain, flee UP."
Tornado Watch/Warning generally means you look to see how windy it is, and how much the wind is cyclonic (aka "is it spinning"?) We've had "quasi tornados" before, right above our house. "Please don't take the roof, God, please."
Doctors getting sued? Ha! Come to Texas. We have lawsuit reform.
Doctors can kill all the people they want!
Ha. I bet in Texas they blink less about prescribing ivermectin.
Doctors are very risk-adverse people, being generally midwits. This means when they kill people, they do so in great numbers, and with great vigor (Asprin? Love it. Here, have 30 grams per day!)
https://irishpharmacist.ie/opinion/the-spanish-flu-did-aspirin-increase-the-death-toll/
(note: nag screen must be answered yes. Let me know if this needs a different link, I can pull the actual study if needed).
Now that we've removed informed consent as a guiding principle, doctors and nurses can feel free to k-hole anyone they like, just for being too yappy.
My regular pain doctor told me that ivermectin cured his COVID. I was floored
He seemed so cool.
Oh! Yesterday a TX doctor went on social media and wrote "ha ha Maga you got what you voted for" (about drownings) and already she's been disavowed, fired and the state is investigating.
Don't mess with TX for real!
So, your regular "I prescribe placebos and probably don't tell you" doctor thinks ivermectin cured his COVID-19, and you're floored?
https://www.npr.org/2008/10/24/96063076/survey-u-s-doctors-regularly-prescribe-placebos
https://www.health.harvard.edu/newsletter_article/the-power-of-the-placebo-effect
https://www.feinberg.northwestern.edu/research/podcast/chronic-pain-and-the-placebo-effect.html
Placebo effect is regularly measured to be stronger when pain relief is involved.
Ivermectin, by the way, is a prophylactic for COVID-19, along with a lot of other viruses (all studies done on it as a curative for an ongoing infection are designed to be bunk and designed to fail). It's also prescribed to more than 10% of the world's population on a daily basis, most of whom are illiterate.
Naturally, the CDC believes that ranchers can't measure dosages of ivermectin without poisoning themselves, despite the fact that ranchers measure dosages for calves and cows all day long. Or could there be a different reason the CDC doesn't want people taking a nearly harmless drug?
(Do not use HCQ. HCQ is dangerous if you have a heart condition, and only really works with zinc supplementation).
My current theory is that the grackles drive Texans all insane.