I noticed you never mentioned Elon Musk, a one-man cabal who’s what you get when you mix a Bond villain with the biggest nerd in your seventh-grade class. Oversight, or are you part of the villain-nerd cabal?
I think Trump recognizes that our trading partners have more to lose than we do, and is therefore applying pressure to get more out of them.
That is standard business negotiation, and most people in DC, activism, or academia have at most negotiated when buying or selling a house. It is an alien concept to them.
I also suspect that the left finds the whole idea of throwing your weight around to be unseemly, simply because they feel guilty for having that power in the first place. Trump on the other hand thinks "why would you NOT use it?"
To the left, Trump is being a bully. To Trump he is simply not being a schmuck.
And the "shadowy cabal" you are worried about get this logic. Of course the Boston Globe and guys like Noah Smith do not.
Either you're kidding, or you don't know how long-term negotiations work. Proving yourself to be completely unreliable as a partner and overtly belligerent towards others for no reason is a terrible negotiating tactic. Trump's approach has no realistic positive outcome for America.
Sticking up for yourself is not being unreliable. If he gets these countries to reduce their tariffs, which is the highest probability outcome, he has generated a positive outcome.
Business negotiation and diplomatic negotiations are different, I agree. But I don't mind him giving it a shot.
I think the scenarios in order of likeliness are:
1) Our trading partners reduce their tariffs to zero, the US lifts their tariffs and life goes on.
2) Our trading partners make a token reduction, Trump declares victory, and things move on.
3) We end up in a protracted trade war. The US will outlast their opponents, but it will be a tough slog.
Trump is rattling his saber about #3, and I hope it is just posturing. I don't know.
Australia has a free trade agreement that has been in place with the US for nearly 25 years. So why is Australia being subjected to a 10% tariff? And if we are, why shouldn't we just slap one right back on the US? The US buys iron ore and other mining products for manufacturing from Australia, so all that will happen is our materials will be more costly to US manufacturers.
Ronald Reagan had a great comment about how if you're in a boat and somebody starts shooting holes in it, you shouldn't threaten to shoot more holes in it in retaliation. When countries threaten each other with tariffs, that's what's going on.
Well, just a few days later ... and do note my remark about Taiwan below...
Yes. It looks like mutually fair trade at zero tariff is on the table. Specifically with Taiwan! So it does seem there's something to be said for letting the man cook.
I think that you are sort of right...but most threats are usually backed up with an 'or else' prior to going into effect. That does not seem to be the case. He is just doing it, without asking for anything in return. I think that he thinks that it will cause GM to suddenly open a motor manufacturing plant in Ohio or something. He doesn't realize that it takes a predictable business environment and billions of dollars to do something like that. Trump is anything but predictable, and I think other countries are losing their will to negotiate with us.
well, these are reciprocal tariffs, so he isn't imposing tariffs on any country that doesn't already have tariffs imposed on the US. I think the perception that he isn't asking for anything in return is driven by the media and democrats. It doesn't even dawn on them that Trump may be posturing - they are too emotionally invested in the narrative that Trump doesn't know what he is doing. Couldn't possibly be that they don't know what he is doing.
Case in point: A lot of auto parts are made in Canada, and the whole language about the 51st state is about how Canada should impose zero percent tariffs, just like Ohio doesn't impose tariffs on Michigan. But the media thinks it means Trump is threatening to invade.
As even Trump's intellectual defenders like Oren Cass concede, we don't know *what* these are, because Trump isn't willing to clearly state what he actually wants--much less credibly commit to lifting tariffs if he gets it.
You can keep trying to put lipstick on the pig, but it's going to get back in the mud eventually.
It is, in fact, possible to put an offer on the table to serve as a starting point for negotiations without tipping your entire hand--which, again, is what Trump's *supporters* like Cass are begging him to do.
Wait, I thought we were doing the tariffs to make Canada and Mexico do a better job on fentanyl and illegal immigration. That's at least what it still says on the White House website.
Oh but wait, we're also doing it to punish countries for running trade deficits with us.
Also, we might be doing it to make other countries not buy Russian oil if and when Trump loses his patience with Putin.
Or, according to a recent tweet from JD Vance, we might be doing it to make gloal supply chains more robust to the potential shocks that come from over-specialization.
Or maybe these really are just reciprocal tariffs. Being reciprocated on *all imports* from the countries in question, rather than those from specific sectors. At rates that were determined using unknown methods, and that will result in total tariffs that differ from the ones we're "reciprocating" by amounts that the administration isn't even bothering to estimate.
I do recognize that your theory is not logically inconsistent with the observed facts. I cannot prove that Trump is not simply attempting to impose offsetting tariffs in order to make everything fair. But it's a bit of a stretch, given how the plans and rationales keep changing. The simpler explanation is that Trump sees tariffs as a general, all purpose tool for gettting other countries to do what he wants.
Any updated thoughts, now that we've seen the "reciprocal" tariff rates? Looks like what's been reciprocated are not tariffs after all, but rather trade balances. Also, everyone gets a 10% minimum no matter what, even if they impose no tariffs of their own and even if we have the trade surplus and they have the deficit.
Not even close to being reciprocal. Trump's understanding of the effects of trade deficits is infantile at best. He has not even asked for what he wants, it just appears he thinks Nike will now build a beautiful big shoe factory in the USA next week.
The tariffs apply to uninhabited places even. And to countries so poor they could never buy any of our stuff anyway.
And to the comment that I can't find now....countries that put tariffs on us are also shooting themselves in the groin.
Australia has no tariffs on American products, The US has a significant trade surplus with Australia, but Trump is still going to likely impose these tariffs because his broken brain thinks he can take the US economy back to the late 1800s.
The problem seems to be that the shadowy cabal of elites are even MORE worried about what'll happen if they offend Trump. Will he strike down their next acquisition? Will he get revenge by slapping regulations on their business? I predict they'll only grow a spine after he becomes a lame duck.
First off, shredded palate aside, I would sooner trust the kindly Captain Crunch than anyone in President von Shitzhispantz's employ. Secondly, where can I purchase a "Team Evil Cabal" tshirt or water bottle?
Unfortunately it can always be spinned. I think this plays into their theory of the WEF’s great reset where the elite will snatch everything up at a low price and normies will own nothing. The cabal is always up to something!
I think there is a below-the-waterline understanding among business leaders that things are better when there is a big pool of cheap labour that has no alternative but to work in their companies. Even better if they are uneducated and desperate enough to not do uppity things like form unions and demand better pay/conditions.
Tariffs work toward this goal. Sure the prices of consumer items go up...you know, the things Conchita buys and puts in your fridge while you are out. Not only can you afford it, you don't even know what they cost and don't care. Meanwhile, your company is pulling in higher absolute revenues from the higher prices making it easier to hide a few extra points of profit margin in there. Your stock valuation takes a wee hit but you just do some layoffs, put off that expansion that was such a headache anyway and ride it out while your weaker competitors go bust. Then everything adjusts, your people figure out how to do the tariff paperwork and it's back to watching the stock market climb while hungry people line up outside your door to do whatever work you want for whatever you want to pay them.
In other words, recessions don't hurt the people who cause them.
For bonus points, you can throw some money at campaigns to cut government. After all, YOU don't need a government. Public education just puts ideas in people's heads so it should go. Not like the private school you and all your friends' kids go to is going anywhere. Abortion shouldn't be allowed...keep 'em poor and pregnant and watch the supply of manual labourers grow! It's good if they have guns too so they can shoot each other regularly and fuck up their families and job prospects. Drugs also useful both for the way they mess people up directly and get them arrested so their communities stay impoverished and destabilized. Oh and don't forget the donation to the church that tells them every day that everything is fixable with prayer and bad things are entirely the fault of heathens.
Marx was right about a lot of stuff, he just had the solutions wrong.
The shadowy elites might enjoy profit, but not as much as they enjoy keeping the truth about JFK and their trips to Epstein island a secret. Maybe they weren't scared of Bush and Obama and Biden, cos those sellouts would never go against the people who made them. But they know what happens if they mess with Trump! He'll put their pedo videos on youtube, he doesn't give a shit. He's got em by the nards, tariffs ain't nothin!
I think you meant “Kosher VOLTRON?”
You'd never see this kind of mistake in the Gaurdian.
Also, "power brokering"
That's what they WANT you to think.
You dishonor our country’s storied naval tradition by mis-titling a decorated officer.
He is Cap’n Crunch, not Captain.
I noticed you never mentioned Elon Musk, a one-man cabal who’s what you get when you mix a Bond villain with the biggest nerd in your seventh-grade class. Oversight, or are you part of the villain-nerd cabal?
I think Trump recognizes that our trading partners have more to lose than we do, and is therefore applying pressure to get more out of them.
That is standard business negotiation, and most people in DC, activism, or academia have at most negotiated when buying or selling a house. It is an alien concept to them.
I also suspect that the left finds the whole idea of throwing your weight around to be unseemly, simply because they feel guilty for having that power in the first place. Trump on the other hand thinks "why would you NOT use it?"
To the left, Trump is being a bully. To Trump he is simply not being a schmuck.
And the "shadowy cabal" you are worried about get this logic. Of course the Boston Globe and guys like Noah Smith do not.
Either you're kidding, or you don't know how long-term negotiations work. Proving yourself to be completely unreliable as a partner and overtly belligerent towards others for no reason is a terrible negotiating tactic. Trump's approach has no realistic positive outcome for America.
Sticking up for yourself is not being unreliable. If he gets these countries to reduce their tariffs, which is the highest probability outcome, he has generated a positive outcome.
Business negotiation and diplomatic negotiations are different, I agree. But I don't mind him giving it a shot.
I think the scenarios in order of likeliness are:
1) Our trading partners reduce their tariffs to zero, the US lifts their tariffs and life goes on.
2) Our trading partners make a token reduction, Trump declares victory, and things move on.
3) We end up in a protracted trade war. The US will outlast their opponents, but it will be a tough slog.
Trump is rattling his saber about #3, and I hope it is just posturing. I don't know.
Australia has a free trade agreement that has been in place with the US for nearly 25 years. So why is Australia being subjected to a 10% tariff? And if we are, why shouldn't we just slap one right back on the US? The US buys iron ore and other mining products for manufacturing from Australia, so all that will happen is our materials will be more costly to US manufacturers.
Maybe Trump is just a fucking idiot.
Ronald Reagan had a great comment about how if you're in a boat and somebody starts shooting holes in it, you shouldn't threaten to shoot more holes in it in retaliation. When countries threaten each other with tariffs, that's what's going on.
Exactly. Trump is betting other nations want to stop shooting and patch the holes.
It's just alien to globalists that anyone would want to adjust the current system, which is been great for a lot of wealthy people.
Are we going with "Trump actually wants no tariffs on anyone"?
Well, just a few days later ... and do note my remark about Taiwan below...
Yes. It looks like mutually fair trade at zero tariff is on the table. Specifically with Taiwan! So it does seem there's something to be said for letting the man cook.
https://www.reuters.com/world/taiwan-wont-take-reciprocal-tariffs-against-us-will-remove-trade-barriers-2025-04-06/
Level playing field? Sure.
Although I hope -- for strategic reasons -- we speedrun that endpoint with Taiwan.
I think that you are sort of right...but most threats are usually backed up with an 'or else' prior to going into effect. That does not seem to be the case. He is just doing it, without asking for anything in return. I think that he thinks that it will cause GM to suddenly open a motor manufacturing plant in Ohio or something. He doesn't realize that it takes a predictable business environment and billions of dollars to do something like that. Trump is anything but predictable, and I think other countries are losing their will to negotiate with us.
well, these are reciprocal tariffs, so he isn't imposing tariffs on any country that doesn't already have tariffs imposed on the US. I think the perception that he isn't asking for anything in return is driven by the media and democrats. It doesn't even dawn on them that Trump may be posturing - they are too emotionally invested in the narrative that Trump doesn't know what he is doing. Couldn't possibly be that they don't know what he is doing.
Case in point: A lot of auto parts are made in Canada, and the whole language about the 51st state is about how Canada should impose zero percent tariffs, just like Ohio doesn't impose tariffs on Michigan. But the media thinks it means Trump is threatening to invade.
As even Trump's intellectual defenders like Oren Cass concede, we don't know *what* these are, because Trump isn't willing to clearly state what he actually wants--much less credibly commit to lifting tariffs if he gets it.
You can keep trying to put lipstick on the pig, but it's going to get back in the mud eventually.
Well yes, not declaring what your red lines are and what you will be willing to accept up front is negotiation 101.
It is, in fact, possible to put an offer on the table to serve as a starting point for negotiations without tipping your entire hand--which, again, is what Trump's *supporters* like Cass are begging him to do.
well, you don't know what is being said behind closed doors, and neither do anyone in the chattering classes.
Wait, I thought we were doing the tariffs to make Canada and Mexico do a better job on fentanyl and illegal immigration. That's at least what it still says on the White House website.
Oh but wait, we're also doing it to punish countries for running trade deficits with us.
Also, we might be doing it to make other countries not buy Russian oil if and when Trump loses his patience with Putin.
Or, according to a recent tweet from JD Vance, we might be doing it to make gloal supply chains more robust to the potential shocks that come from over-specialization.
Or maybe these really are just reciprocal tariffs. Being reciprocated on *all imports* from the countries in question, rather than those from specific sectors. At rates that were determined using unknown methods, and that will result in total tariffs that differ from the ones we're "reciprocating" by amounts that the administration isn't even bothering to estimate.
I do recognize that your theory is not logically inconsistent with the observed facts. I cannot prove that Trump is not simply attempting to impose offsetting tariffs in order to make everything fair. But it's a bit of a stretch, given how the plans and rationales keep changing. The simpler explanation is that Trump sees tariffs as a general, all purpose tool for gettting other countries to do what he wants.
I think action on fentanyl and immigration could substitute for reducing tariffs
Any updated thoughts, now that we've seen the "reciprocal" tariff rates? Looks like what's been reciprocated are not tariffs after all, but rather trade balances. Also, everyone gets a 10% minimum no matter what, even if they impose no tariffs of their own and even if we have the trade surplus and they have the deficit.
Not even close to being reciprocal. Trump's understanding of the effects of trade deficits is infantile at best. He has not even asked for what he wants, it just appears he thinks Nike will now build a beautiful big shoe factory in the USA next week.
The tariffs apply to uninhabited places even. And to countries so poor they could never buy any of our stuff anyway.
And to the comment that I can't find now....countries that put tariffs on us are also shooting themselves in the groin.
We'll see how it plays out. I didn't want tariffs but it is what it is. I am not going to pay too much attention to the left's 19th nervous breakdown.
But I am not going to declare it all a failure without seeing how people react.
> the left's 19th nervous breakdown.
The S&P 500 being down 10% isn't "LOL the left is just having another of their nervous breakdowns."
Australia has no tariffs on American products, The US has a significant trade surplus with Australia, but Trump is still going to likely impose these tariffs because his broken brain thinks he can take the US economy back to the late 1800s.
Has the Australian PM criticized Trump publicly? Kissed his ass? That's the real standard here.
Wrong
If the shadowy cabal get this logic, why are stocks down?
Something tells me (read: history) that business practices aren't going work well in government.
The problem seems to be that the shadowy cabal of elites are even MORE worried about what'll happen if they offend Trump. Will he strike down their next acquisition? Will he get revenge by slapping regulations on their business? I predict they'll only grow a spine after he becomes a lame duck.
First off, shredded palate aside, I would sooner trust the kindly Captain Crunch than anyone in President von Shitzhispantz's employ. Secondly, where can I purchase a "Team Evil Cabal" tshirt or water bottle?
The foot soldiers of the far left and far right fall for so much bull, they'll rarely recognise real evil.
On tankies:
https://drlalmaty.substack.com/p/i-hate-russia
On reactionaries:
https://substack.com/home/post/p-159968142
Unfortunately it can always be spinned. I think this plays into their theory of the WEF’s great reset where the elite will snatch everything up at a low price and normies will own nothing. The cabal is always up to something!
Agree there is no organized cabal...HOWEVER...
I think there is a below-the-waterline understanding among business leaders that things are better when there is a big pool of cheap labour that has no alternative but to work in their companies. Even better if they are uneducated and desperate enough to not do uppity things like form unions and demand better pay/conditions.
Tariffs work toward this goal. Sure the prices of consumer items go up...you know, the things Conchita buys and puts in your fridge while you are out. Not only can you afford it, you don't even know what they cost and don't care. Meanwhile, your company is pulling in higher absolute revenues from the higher prices making it easier to hide a few extra points of profit margin in there. Your stock valuation takes a wee hit but you just do some layoffs, put off that expansion that was such a headache anyway and ride it out while your weaker competitors go bust. Then everything adjusts, your people figure out how to do the tariff paperwork and it's back to watching the stock market climb while hungry people line up outside your door to do whatever work you want for whatever you want to pay them.
In other words, recessions don't hurt the people who cause them.
For bonus points, you can throw some money at campaigns to cut government. After all, YOU don't need a government. Public education just puts ideas in people's heads so it should go. Not like the private school you and all your friends' kids go to is going anywhere. Abortion shouldn't be allowed...keep 'em poor and pregnant and watch the supply of manual labourers grow! It's good if they have guns too so they can shoot each other regularly and fuck up their families and job prospects. Drugs also useful both for the way they mess people up directly and get them arrested so their communities stay impoverished and destabilized. Oh and don't forget the donation to the church that tells them every day that everything is fixable with prayer and bad things are entirely the fault of heathens.
Marx was right about a lot of stuff, he just had the solutions wrong.
This is a very low IQ take.
"Where the fuck is this shadowy cabal of business elites that I’m always hearing about?"
They're the ones tanking the stock market.
The shadowy elites might enjoy profit, but not as much as they enjoy keeping the truth about JFK and their trips to Epstein island a secret. Maybe they weren't scared of Bush and Obama and Biden, cos those sellouts would never go against the people who made them. But they know what happens if they mess with Trump! He'll put their pedo videos on youtube, he doesn't give a shit. He's got em by the nards, tariffs ain't nothin!
How'd I do?
Anti semitism has always been incoherent. Are we all powerful? If so, why have we been run out of every country for millennia?
Just another example of why you shouldn’t trust the elite.
Best thing I've read all week!
Hilarious, Maurer. So fun.