Forget Iran -- Trump Is Getting Outmaneuvered by Jimmy Kimmel

Let's hope that Kimmel doesn't try to go nuclear

Photo by Variety via Getty.

Trump’s alleged ability as a negotiator is key to his appeal. Expressions that rationalize authoritarian behavior — e.g. “He makes the trains run on time”, “He’s a son-of-a-bitch, but he’s our son-of-a-bitch” — are about tolerating bad acts in exchange for results. But Trump doesn’t get results. He acts on impulse and fails to see the big picture, and that’s why he’s getting his strategic ass spanked red by a cloistered bunch of theocrats and the guy who was second banana on Win Ben Stein’s Money.

For the second time in seven months, Trump has threatened Jimmy Kimmel because of a joke. When this happened last September, ABC pulled Kimmel off the air, only to reverse course when the decision became a PR Chernobyl. The FCC talked a big (and stupid!) game, but they didn’t make good on threats to pull broadcast licenses. And Ted Cruz — of all people — played a major role in getting the FCC to change course, thus taking the unlikely hero trope in a new and kinda-smarmy direction.

Now, Trump is running the exact same play that failed seven months ago, only dumber. The first difference is that the incident last September strengthened Kimmel’s position. Everyone in TV knows that late night shows are dying; that opinion is as agreed-upon among TV people as “it’s only gay if you’re in view of the coastline” is among sailors. But Trump’s botched martyrdom of Kimmel did the impossible: It caused the ratings for a late night show in the 2020s to trend up:

Source: Late Nighter.

The network affiliates who were willing to temporarily put politics over business last fall are unlikely to do so now that Trump is asking them to take a bigger hit for a less offensive joke. Nexstar and Sinclair — the conglomerates who led the affiliate revolt — remain businesses, and there is no business model that recommends burying a viable show that ABC already paid for so that you can air reruns of Punky Brewster.

Another problem is that all the parties involved ran the math on this dustup last year and it favored keeping Kimmel on the air. When ABC took Kimmel off the air, they didn’t know how big of a PR hit they would take, but they quickly found out. They also didn’t know if Nexstar and Sinclair were willing to die on this particular hill, and it turned out that they weren’t. Bluster can make people think that they face a bigger threat than they do — that’s really the whole point of bluster — but it only works when people don’t know what they’re facing. Once the threat has been accurately assessed, bluster just makes you seem like a tropical bird hopping around on the forest floor, waving its plumage and hoping desperately for someone to notice.

A third problem is that the fact that Trump uses the executive branch to attack his enemies is even more well known now than it was last fall. To win its suit against ABC, the FCC will need to convince a judge that they’re just doing their job, and it’s just a goofy coincidence that their actions correspond with the president’s vindictive late night ramblings. Unfortunately for them, the fact that Trump has hurled the power of the executive branch at James Comey, Letitia James, John Bolton, and many others like a gorilla flinging his poo is well-established. Each new Trump lawsuit makes the next one less likely to succeed, because arguments like “we were not directed by the president — we truly believe that James Comey has engaged in seashell-based terrorism” become somehow-even-less-believable.

Trump’s chances of success are close to zero. ABC has already shown a willingness to fight it out in court, Kimmel is still on the air, and the affiliate revolt that was key last time has not materialized. Trump will almost certainly lose, possibly hilariously. So why did he even pick this fight? We all know the answer: Because he’s not acting strategically — he’s just doin’ shit.

Trump does not engage in rational cost-benefit analysis; he eats himself into a KFC-induced state of torpor, watches Fox News, and rage-tweets. The products of those sessions become US policy. Trump’s attacks on his enemies often don’t constitute “gaining leverage” because “leverage” means strengthening your position relative to your opponents, while Trump’s bluster often weakens his position. He’s not “gaining leverage” — he’s yelling “fuck you” into the wind, and his adorably naïve cheerleaders perpetually try to spin his tantrums as strategic master strokes.

It’s not great the the commander in chief is incapable of strategically outflanking the guy from The Man Show. It’s even worse that he’s gotten himself into a staring contest with a bunch of nuclear-aspiring theocrats that’s already lasted two weeks longer than he predicted. Because I think that Iran getting a nuclear weapon would be a disaster, I’m hoping that the president’s manic flailing will somehow work out. But I know the difference between “gaining leverage” and “pissing yourself with rage”, and unfortunately, I know which thing we’re witnessing here.

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